Fair enough. I appreciate your question. The main reason is to prevent a hard disappointment in November that comes from increased expectations. Sort of like what happened in Nov 2008 when everyone here believed LS that McCain was going to win.
There are a lot of factors out there besides inflation. The country has changed. What worked in politics in 1994 or even 2010 will not work any more. Too many on our side are expecting a 1994-sized red wave, and it ain't going to happen. We want to simply keep the expectations realistic.
Yes, we will win the House. But beyond that, it is a lot closer than many on our side are willing to admit.
It’s based on experience and what we know about the GOPe.
Their plan is to lose the midterms, blame it on Trump, and get their person nominated for 2024. They can’t afford to have a victory that Trump gets credit for. So you can already see how they are sabotaging it, but really not even trying. There is no message, no motivation, other than from the Trump side, but that alone may not be enough.
No one believed McCain was going to win in 2008. The fact McCain was actually leading after Labor Day and submarined his own campaign by the end of the month kinda kept everything in perspective.
Thank you for your thoughtful and reasoned response.