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Lyman Stone wrote smartly about it - https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1552406864113057794

Not only should the US not offer this deal, the US should not even try to secure Griner’s release. Holding Griner is awful for Russia.

Basically, Russia depends on a lot of technical expertise from other countries to keep a lot of its industries, especially oil/gas, operationally. Nowadays, the big consultancies won’t take that work. But they can still offer stupidly big payouts to individual experts.
Basically, all Russia can access now are individual mercenary experts traveling without the protection or backing of a firm or government.

Which is what Griner was doing: going mercenary for the Russians.
This is a common thing. Athletes in their off-season often make extra money in international settings. You basically represent yourself, stay out of competing with your home league, and make extra. The deal for the Russians is: they get prestige and expert training.
How does Russia work on improving its pool of basketball Olympians? Simple: by recruiting American ones.

Obviously, “Russian basketball” is not a huge share of Russia’s GDP. This is a trivial example. But it’s the same phenomenon. Russia *needs* to be able to hire mercs.
Mercenary soldiers, mercenary basketball players, mercenary oil rig technicians.... they need *individuals traveling without institutional backing* to be willing to come to Russia to take a fat paycheck for a short-term gig that everybody knows is not strictly legit.
And this is why Griner is a problem for Russia.

Griner was in Russia, as one of their foreign technical experts getting the nice paycheck for a short gig.

And they arrested her.
If you’re the oil rig guy in Australia being offered a big paycheck to do two weeks in Siberia on your vacation time to make an extra buck, the question of whether Russia retaliates against Australia by detaining you when you try to exit is a very real question!
And every time Griner’s detention is in the news it gets realer.
Griner of course is different from oil technicians: she’s more expendable to Russia and her politics much easier to mock.

But if you think none of the traveling-expert-technician-consultant crowd are reconsidering Russian contracts, boy do I have some news for you.
And worry about cases like Griner are part of way, for the same reason China arresting the think tank dude in retaliation for Meng sent shockwaves through everybody who ever collaborates with Chinese policy shops: there are LOTS of experts acutely aware of their expendability!
The longer the US lets Griner sit, the more Russia hurts.

Griner hurts too of course. That said, I would be sympathetic to Griner if she were like some important voice for change in Russia or helping starving kids or something. But, she was just there to entertain oligarchs.
Her whole reason for being in Russia was to get a ridiculous paycheck for playing in literal *Siberia* because a big Russian copper mine likes to use women’s basketball as part of its “friendly face” public relations campaigns.
I’m all for going to the mat to get Americans out of jail who are unfairly accused.

But 1) Griner is guilty of the crime she’s accused of, and it’s not like it’s some total mindbender of a crime. She brought drugs into a country where doing so was a crime.
2) I just don’t have sympathy for Americans who decide to, in this case kind of literally, play for the other side. She chose to be part of a propaganda operation for Putin’s buddies and it bit her in the bum. That really sucks.

It’s not a national security problem.
I’m all for using whatever reasonable and normal consular functions we have to secure her fair treatment as much as possible.

But releasing a hardened criminal arms dealer WHILE RUSSIA IS FIGHTING A WAR?

That’s stupid.
Don’t make a trade for Griner. Just keep it in the news how horribly Russia treats its mercenaries.