The US-China Currency Rivalry: Choosing Sides

American Institute for Economic Research ^ | 06/08/22

[BusterDog]

The recent dollar-denominated financial sanctions on Russia by the United States inadvertently highlight the growing significance of the yuan (RMB) as an alternative currency. Although today’s immediate concerns revolve around the potential for Moscow to avoid sanctions by transacting in RMB, the significance of the emerging US-China currency rivalry exhibits far broader implications. Many countries are reevaluating their commercial and strategic interests, including increasing their usage of the yuan. As a result, China’s effort to internationalize the yuan is seeing increasing success after six years of stagnation. If the US is to protect its position in the world financial order, it must uphold its sound institutions underpinning the world’s faith in the dollar.

[Svartalfiar]

It won’t be the Yuan, for a number of reasons. More like a commodity based currency used in currency swaps trading with other nations industrial production. Russia’s oil & gas for Chinese manufactured goods. But the fiat dollar is now on its last legs. Other coountries are sick of having to suffer inflation because of the West’s financial irresponsibility, and are looking for an off ramp.

Or we simply won't have a reserve currency. Every nation will traffic between themselves in their local currencies / barter-style trades. No one trusts China enough to actually place their State-manipulated currency as a major backer of anything.

[jimwatx]

Whichever way it’s resolved, the big issue is the dollar losing it’s reserve currency status. Economists say that would immediately result in a 1/3 drop in our standard of living. And that estimate was prior to covid and they printed all that money, so I shudder to think how much lower it would be today, probably more like a 50% loss. Now picture the US today and their money’s value immediately cut in half, but the price of everything else remains the same. Not a pretty picture.