I have a theory about why gas prices are high, even as demand shrinks and production increases. It goes like this:
Oil is a traded commodity, like corn and silver - and bitcoin. And this means the price is very much impacted by what people think will happen in the future regarding scarcity, demand, etc. i.e. the price is based somewhat on faith - or lack thereof - in its future value. The stark example of a “faith only” valued commodity would be bitcoin, since it has zero intrinsic value, unlike even a tulip.
So, when the world’s governments stamp oil as “bad”, and cancel drilling leases, the keystone pipeline (there, I said it), and other activity that demonstrate they are pushing for it to become more scarce, the price will go up as investors will see scarcity - and higher value - in the future. It’s sort of a self fulfilling prophesy.
I think that’s why, even though it doesn’t expand supply immediately, simply saying, as a leader, you are a friend to making sure your people have all the oil they need, demonstrated by things like approving the keystone pipeline, the price remains stable, and may even go down if a previous leader was not oil friendly.
And, in fact, that is exactly the price history we have in the US since 2008. And here we are with biden, with his policies and speeches, effectively jacking up the price.
I also think ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance), and its impact on oil investment may be the biggest reason oil prices are going up internationally.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/other/esg-environmental-social-governance/
Gas was really cheap during the Trump years of enthusiastic drilling. However our vast stockpile at Cushing, OK became totally filled and then tankers all became filled, then drillers shut down or stopped pumping, because there was no more space for storage. Then oil barrel prices soared and more reduced drilling and pumping stops. Then Russia attacked Ukraine and the market became even more disrupted. I have the impression that gas producers are in no hurry to increase production since they can now blame it on Biden and perhaps get a more drill friendly Republican set of legislators.
The 2 pro Russia, anti Ukraine commenters I have seen at this post are eager to push the “Biden caused high gas prices” agenda because at Ukraine news posts they push the pro Putin agenda. So far as the Keystone pipeline is concerned it was planned to carry foreign produced oil of the absolutely dirtiest and most toxic kind across several of our rivers and streams. Anyone remember the Kalamazoo River oil pipeline spill? A 2 1/2 foot wide pipeline cracked and spilled oil for 24 hours. Last I read cleanup had cost over a $billion. So we should risk that kind of destruction of our western rivers for the dirtiest foreign oil out there?
https://www.oilandwaterdontmix.org/6_billion_great_lakes_question_will_enbridge_pay_if_line_5_ruptures [Michigan public considers far higher spill costs for a new Enbridge pipeline across Mackinack Strait than the estimated $1.2billion for Kalamazoo River disaster.]
https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2020/12/10-years-after-oil-spill-kalamazoo-river-michigan/ [How people were affected by pipeline defects and inspections (still not state regulated).]
https://www.epa.gov/enbridge-spill-michigan/enbridge-spill-response-timeline [The final official report,]