It’s real estate I don’t know what to do on. Up or down? I can’t tell.
Up.
Housing real estate, I suspect will flatten a bit. Not up, not down much at least in the short term - depends on where of course. (though the house next door to me has been up for lease for months and no takers, they are asking way too much and I think it’s a long time owner who just rents it out (previous tenants were there many years) and priced it for the market at the time. Owners may have to ask 10%-20% less to get a bite).
But keep your eye on the adjustable rate mortgages. I am sure a lot of people who could tried to lock in 30 years at the historic lows of the last few years. But the 3/1 ARMs and the 5/1 ARMs people may be in trouble come 2023-2025.
Industrial/Warehouse market in my area has been booming. But may not last through 2023. Trouble is most of those come with 3 or 5 year leases so if it’s a real slowdown some may have to bail out of their lease. Commercial/Retail space, about the same but I’d expect those to come down sooner.
Interest rates up - real estate price/demand down
Job layoffs - real estate price/demand down
Can’t source lumber for new houses = real estate supply down price up
people doubling up on apartments, subleases - demand down price down
rising prices - less disposable income - demand down price down
Net - probable prices down until boomer deaths 7 years past peak = 1957 + 78 + 7 = 2042
But hyperinflation could make buying a home a no-brainer