We will know the whole ugly truth in about twenty years if not forty. But, as of Now, all we can see is what’s happening on the ground. Russia appears to be stumbling and losing ground. If your not advancing, your losing. They need to re-think their goals and put more troops on the ground and seek more allies. They need to open a second front. If Putin dies, it might change things but, if we are seen as the real aggressors it will unify the Russian People and stimulate a renewed war that will not end well for anyone.
I will offer up some facts:
1) No one outside the Russian hierarchy has any idea what schedule was projected, and any sources who claim to know likely do not.
2) This is the first war in history where excellent satellite recon was available to both sides. Troop movements are known instantly.
3) Given 2), any massing of forces for either side can be targeted by long range weapons.
4) Ukraine has about 1500 locomotives, only 300 are diesel. The electric substations in the west are being targeted by the Russians. Trains haul heavy weapons, when they can move.
5) Western weaponry is downgraded before shipment. Ukraine does not get state of the art versions. There are explicit photos of howitzers with the digital targeting devices removed.
6) Russian Donbas aircraft sorties with long range weapons can remain in Russian territory. It speeds re-arming.
That’s it. Those are facts. No casualty estimates. No telepathy of who is thinking what. No imagination about Putin illness or health.
The time for that kind of Russian diplomacy was before his troops stepped off. Now it's way too late for that. He might just have to accept defeat with a fig-leaf to obscure it and come back for another bite in 10 years or so. It won't be Putin from what I'm reading about his health problems.