[kiryandil]

We're asked to believe that Kobach "lost" because Trump became unpopular in Kansas in 2018.

That trend should have stayed static or edged up/down a bit in 2020.

Instead, Trump gained 100,000 votes in Kansas over his 2016 showing [a 15% increase].

[blue is associated with counties that were blue for Kelly in 2018]

							Trump 2020	Trump 2020
							minus	div
County	Trump 2016		Kobach		Trump 2020		Trump 2016	Trump 2016
Allen	3,651		2,292		4,218		567	116%
Anderson	2,435		1,596		2,929		494	120%
Atchison	4,049		2,558		4,906		857	121%
Barber	1,850		1,155		2,014		164	109%
Barton	7,888		4,841		8,608		720	109%
Bourbon	4,424		2,970		5,023		599	114%
Brown	2,906		1,836		3,262		356	112%
Butler	19,073		12,822		22,634		3,561	119%
Chase	969		653		1,123		154	116%
Chautauqua	1,236		808		1,402		166	113%
Cherokee	6,182		4,284		6,766		584	109%
Cheyenne	1,173		733		1,183		10	101%
Clark	825		521		904		79	110%
Clay	2,891		1,743		3,177		286	110%
Cloud	2,919		1,744		3,242		323	111%
Coffey	3,050		1,926		3,489		439	114%
Comanche	715		453		762		47	107%
Cowley	8,270		5,165		9,656		1,386	117%
Crawford	8,624		5,662		10,045		1,421	116%
Decatur	1,210		736		1,260		50	104%
Dickinson	6,029		3,790		7,126		1,097	118%
Doniphan	2,606		1,699		2,976		370	114%
Douglas	14,688		10,154		17,286		2,598	118%
Edwards	1,037		692		1,141		104	110%
Elk	1,048		669		1,140		92	109%
Ellis	8,466		5,138		9,758		1,292	115%
Ellsworth	1,969		1,168		2,148		179	109%
Finney	6,350		3,891		7,236		886	114%
Ford	5,114		3,574		5,803		689	113%
Franklin	7,185		4,742		8,479		1,294	118%
Geary	4,274		2,769		5,323		1,049	125%
Gove	1,140		720		1,291		151	113%
Graham	1,025		671		1,080		55	105%
Grant	1,804		1,096		1,936		132	107%
Gray	1,698		1,138		1,911		213	113%
Greeley	534		313		549		15	103%
Greenwood	2,160		1,214		2,444		284	113%
Hamilton	705		373		698		-7	99%
Harper	1,996		1,243		2,168		172	109%
Harvey	8,668		5,872		10,182		1,514	117%
Haskell	1,040		681		1,122		82	108%
Hodgeman	855		597		875		20	102%
Jackson	3,939		2,565		4,517		578	115%
Jefferson	5,213		3,485		6,334		1,121	122%
Jewell	1,223		765		1,387		164	113%
Johnson	137,490		102,813		155,631		18,141	113%
Kearny	1,075		687		1,164		89	108%
Kingman	2,530		1,764		3,130		600	124%
Kiowa	900		615		980		80	109%
Labette	5,335		3,273		5,735		400	107%
Lane	718		437		762		44	106%
Leavenworth	17,638		12,379		21,610		3,972	123%
Lincoln	1,179		769		1,283		104	109%
Linn	3,484		2,401		4,048		564	116%
Logan	1,132		785		1,249		117	110%
Lyon	6,552		3,920		7,550		998	115%
Marion	4,003		2,564		4,465		462	112%
Marshall	3,307		1,581		3,729		422	113%
McPherson	8,549		5,832		9,964		1,415	117%
Meade	1,415		914		1,523		108	108%
Miami	10,003		7,160		12,308		2,305	123%
Mitchell	2,308		1,375		2,504		196	108%
Montgomery	8,679		6,133		9,931		1,252	114%
Morris	1,820		1,106		2,124		304	117%
Morton	995		626		1,034		39	104%
Nemaha	4,124		2,605		4,664		540	113%
Neosho	4,431		2,930		4,970		539	112%
Ness	1,228		808		1,339		111	109%
Norton	1,840		1,187		2,007		167	109%
Osage	4,826		2,964		5,705		879	118%
Osborne	1,460		907		1,629		169	112%
Ottawa	2,283		1,497		2,610		327	114%
Pawnee	1,904		1,145		2,045		141	107%
Phillips	2,233		1,419		2,418		185	108%
Pottawatomie	7,612		5,384		9,452		1,840	124%
Pratt	2,838		1,701		3,108		270	110%
Rawlins	1,220		771		1,261		41	103%
Reno	15,513		9,892		18,443		2,930	119%
Republic	2,024		1,245		2,182		158	108%
Rice	2,837		1,729		3,262		425	115%
Riley	10,107		6,514		11,610		1,503	115%
Rooks	2,031		1,409		2,325		294	114%
Rush	1,197		754		1,350		153	113%
Russell	2,574		1,564		2,790		216	108%
Saline	13,828		8,384		15,722		1,894	114%
Scott	1,865		1,244		2,014		149	108%
Sedgwick	104,353		70,879		122,416		18,063	117%
Seward	3,159		2,009		3,372		213	107%
Shawnee	35,934		23,933		40,443		4,509	113%
Sheridan	1,197		795		1,282		85	107%
Sherman	2,089		1,376		2,269		180	109%
Smith	1,661		1,074		1,763		102	106%
Stafford	1,490		950		1,645		155	110%
Stanton	492		376		614		122	125%
Stevens	1,599		1,042		1,760		161	110%
Sumner	6,984		4,203		8,105		1,121	116%
Thomas	2,908		1,856		3,130		222	108%
Trego	1,227		755		1,363		136	111%
Wabaunsee	2,372		1,582		2,845		473	120%
Wallace	721		506		770		49	107%
Washington	2,194		1,342		2,363		169	108%
Wichita	769		560		808		39	105%
Wilson	2,788		1,869		3,153		365	113%
Woodson	1,082		693		1,228		146	113%
Wyandotte	15,806		10,526		18,934		3,128	120%
	671,018		453,030		771,406		100,388	115%

[Wayne07]

Yes, turnout in presidential election years is always higher.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Not so much that Kelly was overcounted, but that Kobach was undercounted, by your reckoning. Well, you can always get a few Post Office trusties to throw out the absentee ballots from GOP neighborhoods.