“Yes this thing could go on for years. With that possibility in mind, do ya think Ukraine will join NATO or not? Will they sign away territory for peace and permanent vassalhood?”
My opinion is that it is foolish to try to predict the outcome at this point.
No one can predict the future, but when a scientist comes up with a valid theory his predictions around certain scientific results come true. It’s a way to prove your viewpoint is the correct one.
Oh well, with so many parameters it is difficult to even come up with predictable outcomes. My prediction would be: If Finland joins NATO, Russia will not invade. Kind of obvious, I know. But working backwards from that, if Ukraine had joined NATO, Vlad wouldn’t have invaded. So... why didn’t they? The answer appears to be: It’s complicated. Not so complicated any more, is it?
It is not an attempt at prediction, it is a straightforward hypothetical. That’s what the phrase “With that possibility in mind” means.