Here’s the thing. If a country invades you for your oil, is that different than a country invading you for your gas? And if they invade you for BOTH, WTF difference does it make?
It’s like someone is pointing a gun at you and you’re talking about how that doesn’t change the street price of ghost guns. That street price aint your worry, it DOES NOT MATTER.
No, if a country invades you it doesn’t matter if they are doing it on account of your sunflower crop.
But how it affects THIRD PARTIES can vary a lot depending on what the commodities and associated infrastructure is.
Russia is pointing guns rather willy-nilly at the moment, but lets sort out the details here.
To Ukraine it doesn’t matter a bit. War is war.
To Germany it matters a lot, because they have structured a lot of their industry to use Russian Nat Gas. They have a problem getting off that, it will take time and money, if they don’t want to be vulnerable, again, to Russian blackmail.