It sounds like you believe all this stuff about Russia luzing so many men, basically luzing this war. I doubt it. The Ukes wouldn’t need a guarantor if such was the case.
losing, not luzing. Tips for non-native English speakers. English speech is rather divergent phonetically from the written form. Not as bad as French, but still a problem.
Generally, my analysis works even if Russia hasn’t lost a single man. A country defending its territory against external aggression should have no internal political problems mobilizing its reserves for service on its own territory. That’s what they are there for. A country engaging in external aggression can have much worse problems in this. Historically, for instance, France, Britain and the US had serious difficulties finding manpower for this purpose.
Ex - France from the early 19th century had laws prohibiting its conscripts from service abroad. Thats why they organized the Foreign Legion, regular troops (La Coloniale), and native troops (Algerians, Tunisians, Senegalese, etc.), specifically for colonial service.
So if Russia want to be able to invade Ukraine again, it will have to maintain a much larger “contract” force than it does now. That, or modify its conscription laws and process to make a reservist force it can actually use for offensive action.