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To: Vlad0

None of what you say is going to happen, of course. It’s a fantasy of yours, I guess?
***I would put it at about 1 in 3 chance that the Ukes are working on nukes.

It’s probably true that if they kept their nukes none of this would have happened, but THEY DIDN’T.
***Well, at least there’s some rationality to your approach.

So now they are slowly being choked to death by the Russian Bear. They didn’t make it into NATO, so NATO isn’t going to do anything too disruptive to protect them (or they already would have. What are they waiting for?) The Russians are shelling major cities. I’m not sure what the point of your revenge fantasy posting is exactly.
***It is an existential war for the Ukes. The slower they can get that bear choking process to go, the higher the chance they’ll build suitcase nukes.

My list is merely a compiled list of what the Russians have said they want, culled from multiple sources, mostly official Russian ones. It doesn’t reflect my fantasies or desires.
***Ok. The list is the official Russian fantasy list. Mine would be the official Uke fantasy list.

One end to the war is Russia eventually grinds down all the defenses in Ukraine, and accepts the unconditional surrender of the Country from whoever is left running it at that point, just like we did with Emperor Hirohito and General Umezu in Japan in WW2.
***Yup. The longer the grind, the more it becomes a quagmire.

Another end to the war is that Ukraine and Russia negotiate something. Russia has been pretty clear what they require, I did my best to summarize it. Most people aren’t getting any news from Russia, just the usual MSM cheerleading. Ukraine would like to negotiate an end, because it’s a better deal than the unconditional surrender option.
***Once Ukraine negotiates an end to hostilities, then it would appear they are no longer in an existential struggle. Do you see it the same way?

At this point the best that Ukraine could hope for
***Presuming my outlook didn’t take place...

is probably to turn their country into Afghanistan, and host a proxy war there for the next 10 of 20 years. Somehow, I just don’t see that happening, although I can’t explain why I think that’s unlikely.
***I think such a scenario depends upon the military technology. It seems that antitank guns are quite effective, as well as SAMs. The Ukes don’t seem to have many antiship missiles, though they are quite effective. The edge is in artillery, the Rukes have a major advantage — there isn’t a solid anti-artillery technology available on the market today. This could devolve into trench warfare.


83 posted on 03/26/2022 4:30:46 PM PDT by Kevmo (Give back Ukes their Nukes https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4044080/posts)
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I would put it at about 1 in 3 chance that the Ukes are working on nukes.
***Scratch that. I put it at 85% chance they’re WORKING on nukes, about a 60% chance they generate deliverable nukes in time, and then maybe 45% chance they decide to go ahead with the plan.


90 posted on 03/26/2022 6:52:56 PM PDT by Kevmo (Give back Ukes their Nukes https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4044080/posts)
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