Russia sent about 1,200 main battle tanks into the Ukraine, and has lost about a third of them so far.
A bit under 10,000 vehicles of all kinds were committed. Just the single shipment that Biden announced Wednesday, is enough to destroy every one of them that remains (2,000 javelins, 6,000 AT-4s, 1,000 LAWs). That is just $800 million, out of the over $13 billion just authorized for the Ukraine in the newly enacted budget.
Javelins can do tanks, the others can do all the other types of vehicles. Javelins have a better than 95% probability of kill, with a minimally trained operator. That shipment announced Wednesday (16 March), out of inventory (drawdown), will likely be completely in Country next week.
The last authorized shipment from the USA (in recent weeks) had 2,600 Javelins. The UK has delivered their first shipment of 2,000 NLAWs (Javelin equivalents), and they are reported to be sending more. Germany sent 1,000 anti-tank weapons, including Javelins. Poland and the Baltic Countries sent some unreported number of Javelins, The Ukraine had been buying a few hundred Javelins per year during the Trump Administration, so they had some inventory.
In addition to those top of the line near guaranteed kills, tens of thousands of various anti-armor Infantry (Shoulder-fired) weapons have flooded into the Ukraine - AT-4s, RPGs, Panzerfausts, etc. - from about two dozen Countries, even far away Australia. The Ukrainians have also demonstrated effective capability to kill Russian vehicles with artillery, mines and Bayraktar drones.
Also in just this Wednesday’s package were 800 Stingers. About 1,000 Stingers in total were provided to the Mujahedin in Afghanistan over three years - often credited with driving the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan. The USA, the UK and Germany have already delivered similar sized packages of Stingers and Western equivalents. Other NATO members have already delivered large numbers of Russian/Soviet equivalents, like SA-7s (Strela) and SA-14s (Strela-3).
The great bulk of that arms transfer (among the largest and quickest in history) did not start until after the invasion, and did not start arriving to make much of an impact the first week. But last week (the third week) Russian advances came to near halt, Nationwide. Mariupol was cut off before the heavy resupply (AKA, the Cavalry) arrived. The other cities are now bristling with them, and there is a growing mountain with which to equip offensive operations (even if it is just widespread hit and run sniping, but I anticipate more than that).
Russia had its period of free reign bombarding cities, that is now cresting, with the depletion of their stocks of stand off weapons (Kalibr cruise missiles and Iskander SSMs). Russian tube artillery units are experiencing increasing losses in hostile territory that they do not actually control after passing through it, and it seems likely that they will come under increasing pressure over the next week or two.
Maintaining bombardment of the cities requires mountains of artillery shells that would have to be trucked in, at a time when they have been struggling to even get enough food and fuel for their forces. The Eastern axis of advance toward Kiev from Sumy has not been able to secure its line of communication (supply) and has repeatedly collapsed.
Artillery units are easily located by drones, by local spotters on the ground from their sound, and by the counter-battery systems that have been provided to the Ukrainians over the last two weeks. The Ukrainians have begun to successfully counter attack them (with Bayraktar drones, counter-battery artillery, air strikes and ground assaults) notably around Kharkiv and Kiev.
The scale of the Russian operation far exceeds the resources they have to execute it - under 200,000 troops for an amount of frontage equivalent to what the Nazis committed 3 million (and failed).
The rule of thumb is that you need 3 to 1 superiority in numbers on the offense. Russia went in with about 1 to 1 against the Active Ukrainian Army (about 200,000 each), but the Ukraine has since activated hundreds of thousands of Reservists and Territorial Defense Forces, plus an unknown number of volunteers (likely a lot). Over two million men were subject to recall in the Ukrainian Army Reserve alone. Although only a (significant) fraction of them will likely suit up and pull triggers before this is over, a significant fraction of men not legally subject to Reserve recall will likely do so as well.
The Russian tooth to tail ratio is also unsustainable. They have already committed somewhere between 55-70% of the ground combat power in their Military. They have a lot of inoperable old tanks rusting away in inventory, and a lot of conscripts a few months out of High School - but actual complete units, trained, equipped and ready to fight - not so much. The USA had around 25% of its combat power committed in Vietnam.
Also, the Russian sustaining base (Factories, Arsenals, Depots, Transportation) is dramatically weaker, in relative terms. They will not be sending the Cavalry to the rescue. The manufacture of additional cruise missiles for example, would take them months, even if sanctions did not target key components, which they do. They are heavily dependent on rail transport, and can’t use it, because the tracks run through the cities that they are unable to capture.
They can’t do much low altitude bombing of cities because of the flood Stingers and other short range air defense weapons. S-300s are now on the way, in case they decide to shift to high altitude bombers over cities with dumb bombs (a war crime that will initiate a powerful reaction). Chemical and nuclear weapons would of course bring even stronger International reaction. The only targets for such weapons are cities full of civilians.
Russian forces are facing an epic ass kicking in the coming weeks.
Math (logistics) will have its day. The economic and manufacturing power of the Arsenal of Democracy is behind the Ukrainians.
I look forward to reading books about Putin’s ultimate failure for years to come.
Thank you for taking the time to post your very good analysis.
[Russian forces are facing an epic ass kicking in the coming weeks.
Math (logistics) will have its day. The economic and manufacturing power of the Arsenal of Democracy is behind the Ukrainians.]