Posted on 03/04/2022 6:26:21 PM PST by Zhang Fei
More than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations. Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.
One of the greatest surprises from the initial phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the inability of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) fighter and fighter-bomber fleets to establish air superiority, or to deploy significant combat power in support of the under-performing Russian ground forces. On the first day of the invasion, an anticipated series of large-scale Russian air operations in the aftermath of initial cruise- and ballistic-missile strikes did not materialise. An initial analysis of the possible reasons for this identified potential Russian difficulties with deconfliction between ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, a lack of precision-guided munitions and limited numbers of pilots with the requisite expertise to conduct precise strikes in support of initial ground operations due to low average VKS flying hours. These factors all remain relevant, but are no longer sufficient in themselves to explain the anaemic VKS activity as the ground invasion continues into its second week. Russian fast jets have conducted only limited sorties in Ukrainian airspace, in singles or pairs, always at low altitudes and mostly at night to minimise losses from Ukrainian man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) and ground fire.
In recent years, analysts, including the author, have tended to focus on the impressive combat-air equipment modernisation conducted by Russia since 2010. Most notably, this has seen the VKS acquire around 350 modern aircraft in a decade, including the Sukhoi Su-35S air-superiority fighters, Su-30SM multi-role fighters and Su-34 bombers. There has also been an ambitious modernisation drive to remanufacture and upgrade around 110 Mikoyan Mig-31BM/BSM
(Excerpt) Read more at rusi.org ...
I believe that’s third captured Pantsir. They retail for a cool $15 million a pop. Pay no attention to the Putinist analysis here. I’m sure they are devastated Russia Today is shutting down operations and need to carry on with the Putinist gaslighting.
Russian air has always focused on air defense, not offense.
Live, from Kyiv, It’s Saturday Night!
Tonight’s Guest Host, Vladamir Putin!
Then I’ll believe it.
Russia is 4 times bigger than Ukraine and there military is 10 times bigger.
But Ukraine is fighting. They aren’t rolling over and accepting Russia as their liberators. That’s all I need to know. Ukraine didn’t invade Russia. Russia invaded Ukraine.
I also saw a video of Chechens filling a street and cheering when Zelensky addressed them. It seems Chechens don’t like being “liberated” by Russia either.
Add to that the protests in Belarus last year.
Putin might just have a second wave of breakaway countries if he loses this war. It’d be ironic if in trying to restore the old soviet empire, he overseas another breakup of his country.
They actually only sent 3 or 4 dozen aircraft to Syria.
As your question, yeah, I think they had heavier than expected losses to MANPADS on day one (planes and helos) and scaled back to preserve force.
The incompetence shown so far is heartening.
[Putin might just have a second wave of breakaway countries if he loses this war. It’d be ironic if in trying to restore the old soviet empire, he overseas another breakup of his country.]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiel_mutiny
Within living memory, there are any number of dictators who have survived taking their countries through hell. Kim Il-sung invaded South Korea in 1950. The invasion destroyed his army and required Chinese intervention to fight the US to a draw. He lived to a ripe old age, killing any internal rivals who got in his way. And Kim was a Russian puppet selected for his subservience, not his ability.
Then there’s the case of Saddam Hussein, who started two failed land grabs, against Iran and Kuwait. He survived in office until the US invaded Iraq. And even then, he remained in charge of Baathist/Islamist insurgents until the US pulled him out of his hiding place.
No one handed Putin his job. He clawed his way to power. He knows a thing or two about how to appoint men he can trust with his life to key positions and keep them from conspiring against him individually or in collusion with each other. If he loses and withdraws from Ukraine, he will likely continue to rule Russia until the end of his natural life just like his North Korean counterpart.
Look at Maduro and Gaddafi. They tanked their countries’ economies despite tremendous amounts of oil resources. Gaddafi invaded Chad, lost and took huge losses in men and equipment. It took foreign intervention/invasion to remove one of them. Look at Mugabe. Only personal infirmity in the form of senility removed him from office.
Rumors of wars!
I had no idea we had so many Russian propagandists on this site. And many of them have been here for a long time.
I know there are some people that hate Ukraine because of the Biden corruption. But I blame the Bidens for that. They’re the ones that should have set the example.
I’d really like to know how many of these Putin supporters are actually operating out of Putin controlled territories or being paid by the Russians.
“Leftists hate Putin in the belief he stole the 2016 election from Hillary.”
And most fervently, for his his refusal to allow the unfettered homosexual aganda infiltrating of the countrie’s schools and culture.
Russia is likely filled with incompetent military people. Coordinated air doesn’t just happen. You cannot buy it with technology. You need to PRACTICE it - regularly and often. They don’t and they don’t have high quality recruits.
As much as the US Air Force has gone downhill, the Russians are no where near our level. Just IMHO based on a few decades in flying in and coordinating air packages.
All four of my grandparents escaped the Czar.
I guess that makes me a secret Russkie spy!
“Before last week, since 1944, the entire world absolutely knew how formidable the Russian military was”
Did anyone informed on military issues actually believe that?
Russia has vast numbers of planes, tanks, and conscripts, but all of the hardware dates to Soviet times and is now 30 years out of date.
Conscripts are barely trained and ill equipped. Even the vaunted Spetsnaz has no better equipment and training than an average American GI.
It looks like folks here are just refusing to do their homework.
Here is one pre-hysteria article to start:
“Before last week, since 1944, the entire world absolutely knew how formidable the Russian military was.”
Odd. I didn’t think that in the 1990s, when they WERE far better than they are now.
Everyone know that Russian Air Force was demoralized and went home when the Ghost of Kevin shot down two Russian transports.
I guess it makes you Russian ancestry. So I’m sure there is some nationalistic draw to support Russia.
But I really don’t know why you are supporting Putin in this. He’s getting your countrymen killed. And if you believe Putin when he says Ukrainians and Russians are one people. He’s getting both sides of “his people” killed.
Anytime Putin wants, he can go to Warp 10 and annihilate Ukraine. He is being prudent.
Many Russian production claims have been shown to be merely on paper, in the past.
Hard to know what there real capability is. Their aircraft carrier had to be towed in the Mediterranean. Embarrassing.
Technology is not capability.
It’s a surprise to many of us. Very disappointing, really. If US troops were sent to Ukraine (God forbid), would these Russia/Putin apologists rally against them?
The Russian military had always sucked. The Russian winter helped them to beat two invaders, Napoleon and Hitler. The Soviets took over Eastern Europe because it was already destroyed by the Nazis. In other wars on an equal footing without the Russian winter to help them out, the Russians got their @$$eses whipped in the Crimean War and the Russo-Japanese War.
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