Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to use nuclear saber-rattling to target Western decision-making and promote Western self-deterrence. Putin spoke at the Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg on July 28 and claimed that if the US deploys long-range missile systems in Germany in 2026, the flight time to Russian industrial and defense targets will be about 10 minutes.[1] Putin also commented on US deployments of Typhon Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile systems to Denmark and the Philippines for joint exercises. Putin threatened that if the US implements plans to deploy missile systems to these countries, Russia will no longer be bound by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and will take “mirror measures” to deploy unspecified systems that are currently in the final stages of development to unspecified locations. Putin claimed that Russian strategic missile carriers stopped conducting air patrols after the end of the Cold War but resumed these flights in 2007 in response to increased US strategic and reconnaissance aviation activity in areas of the world that are “sensitive to Russia” and in order to “ensure security in the Asia-Pacific region.” The US and Germany announced in June 2024 that the US will begin “episodic deployments” of long-range fire capabilities, including Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, in Germany starting in 2026 in order to demonstrate US commitment to NATO.[2] The US Army Pacific stated in April 2024 that it deployed the MRC missile system that can fire SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles to the Philippines as part of exercises, and the US Navy announced in May 2024 that it conducted containerized missile launcher rehearsals with the Danish military on Bornholm Island, Denmark.[3] The current location of the MRC systems is unclear, but the US has not announced that it is deploying the systems to Denmark and the Philippines for purposes beyond the previous exercises. Putin officially suspended Russia's participation in the INF Treaty that banned ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers, in March 2019, but Russia has already permanently deployed nuclear capable Iskander-M ballistic missiles, with a reported range of up to 500 kilometers, in Kaliningrad Oblast since 2018.[4] Putin is falsely trying to present the Russian deployment of missiles previously banned under the INF Treaty as an inflection, likely as part of his repeated efforts to use nuclear saber-rattling to push the West to self-deter.[5]
Russia used Navy Day celebrations to showcase Russia's relations with a number of non-Western states as part of efforts to create a supposed Russian-led group of states to rally against the West. Ships from the Chinese, Algerian, and Indian navies participated in the Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg, and representatives from 31 states, including Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Cuba, Libya, Myanmar, Syria, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa, took part in events in St. Petersburg; the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria; and the Baltic, Caspian, and North seas.[6] Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin met with Commander of the PLA Navy Hu Zhongming and discussed cooperation between Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) in the naval sphere.[7] Fomin also met with Myanmar's Navy Commander Win Htein to discuss further naval cooperation between Myanmar and Russia.[8] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also met with Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan in Kuala Lampur on July 28 and agreed to increase Russian–Malaysian diplomatic contacts.[9] Russia has recently increased its cooperation with a number of these states, including Venezuela, Cuba, India, and Vietnam.[10]
A rebel coalition in Mali reportedly killed and wounded dozens of Russian servicemen and Wagner Group mercenaries as well as a prominent Wagner-affiliated milblogger on the Mali-Algeria border on July 27.[15] The Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD) rebel movement claimed that it “routed the entire column of Malian army and Russian mercenaries,” and the Critical Threats Project's (CTP) Africa File will cover the situation in northern Mali in its upcoming update.[16] Social media footage reportedly showed numerous killed Wagner and Malian personnel — including the body of the administrator of the “Grey Zone” Telegram channel Nikita Fedyanin, who routinely covered Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and harshly criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[17] Sources within Fedyanin's close circle confirmed Fedyanin's death to Russian state newswire TASS on July 28.[18] A Russian insider source claimed that Wagner losses amounted to 33 killed and 18 wounded, and various Russian sources claimed that CSP-PSD captured several prisoners — with some speculating that Wagner commander Anton Yelizarov (known under the alias “Lotos”) was captured.[19] Russian sources claimed that the Russian MoD’s Africa Corps successfully mediated a prisoner exchange with CSP-PSD.[20] One Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian MoD paid ransoms for every captured Wagner mercenary except for Yelizarov, and several other milbloggers claimed that Yelizarov died in the ambush.[21] ISW cannot independently verify whether Yelizarov is captured or dead. ISW previously reported that Yelizarov overestimated his ability to convince former Wagner personnel to join Rosgvardia during his efforts to maintain a Wagner contingent and avoid joining the Russian MoD.[22]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-28-2024
Russian blogger:
Very bad news from Africa
We deliberately took our time with this publication. We checked everything, talked to a number of sources who have the appropriate access.
In Mali, a column of Wagner PMC fighters, which was moving together with local units, was attacked. According to our information, approximately 80-85 people were killed. At least 15 more were captured. A Mi-24 helicopter was lost, as well as armored vehicles.
The information about the death of the admin of the GREY ZONE channel “Five Hundredth” was confirmed. Also, we have to report that with a high degree of probability, the Hero of Russia, the commander of the Wagner PMC with the call sign “Lotus” was killed. A great loss for the entire “orchestra”, a real warrior and a skilled commander. He participated in battles not only in Mali, but also in Ukraine, Syria and the Central African Republic.
And now the most important thing - how did it happen that the column was destroyed with such huge losses for us? It is worth noting that before this, Wagner troops carried out a number of successful operations in the Kidal area. The column was destroyed during an attempt to capture the city of Tinzaouatin. The videos that are being distributed online allegedly show that the column was shot by local Tuaregs. But sources in the Ministry of Defense are inclined to believe that it is unlikely that the Tuaregs could have done this on their own.
Sources say that there were mines along the column’s route. Moreover, after the first explosions, the equipment was attacked by FPV drones. The style is similar to how they are currently fighting in the SVO zone. One of the Tuareg warriors has already stated that they are allegedly ready to hand over the prisoners to Ukraine. But in Africa, the practice of ransoming prisoners is widespread, let’s hope that they will not end up in Ukraine. However, if you remember, we reported that Ukrainian special services really do work in Africa. Several months ago, kamikaze drones attacked the convoy of General Andrei Averyanov in Burkina Faso. He managed to survive then, but sources said the attack was the work of the Ukrainians. Last year, air bases and convoys of the Wagner PMC in Mali were attacked several times. The interlocutors also pointed to a Ukrainian trace . The Kremlin snuffbox
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4433
Wagner PMC fighters captured in Mali have not yet been freed
Approximately 15 Wagner fighters and representatives of the Malian army remain in captivity of the Tuaregs. Let us recall that the Tuaregs attacked a column of Wagner fighters and representatives of the local army the day before, as a result of which at least 83 people were killed.
According to our information, attempts to ransom our guys from captivity failed. Information about what happened reached both the president and the defense minister. Rumor has it that the hawks in Vladimir Putin’s entourage are proposing to transfer even more people to Mali.
The president is in no hurry and expects an extended report on what happened in Mali on Monday morning. It is worth recalling that the militants destroyed the column and also “landed” the Mi-24 helicopter that had arrived to help the Wagner fighters.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4435
Much of the Russian information space response to the recent Tuareg insurgent ambush of a Wagner Group in northern Mali coalesced around the suggestion that the Russian MoD will seek to benefit from Wagner losses, highlighting the continued distrust between the Russian MoD and both the Wagner Group in the Sahel and pro-Wagner commentators. Several prominent critical milbloggers claimed that the Russian MoD is “gloating” over losses the Wagner Group reportedly suffered during the attack and suggested that Russian military authorities will use this incident as a reason to end the deployment of Wagner personnel to the Sahel and completely supplant them with units of the Russian MoD’s Africa Corps.[13] Some Russian milbloggers quoted an unidentified source within the Russian Presidential Administration as saying that Africa Corps personnel will replace Wagner troops in the entire “Sahelian Three” (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger).[14] Other milbloggers blamed the Wagner command for incompetence and attempts to sabotage the arrival of Africa Corps personnel, highlighting the persistent information space divides between Wagner and Africa Corps–affiliated commentators.[15] Another Russian-veteran-community-linked milblogger more broadly called for Russia to learn from the incident, strongly emphasizing that Russian forces operating abroad should not expect to face “safe” adversaries and that Russia needs to commit more heavily to foreign operations to ensure sufficient personnel and equipment levels for Russian contingents abroad.[16]
The Africa Corps, notably, likely lacks the current capacity to properly supplant Wagner operations, particularly in Mali, as Africa Corps elements have recently deployed to Ukraine to aid Russian offensive efforts in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[17] Supplanting Wagner at scale following losses such as those accrued in the recent ambush would likely involve re-deploying some Africa Corps fighters to Mali away from the frontline in Ukraine, and the Russian military command likely does not see completely supplanting Wagner in Mali or elsewhere in the Sahel as a priority effort at this time.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-29-2024