Here are additional quotes from AdmSmiths Comment #6,399 with the LINK to ISW’s evaluaion of May 18th statements and other expectations for Russian future events and motives. The following suggests continued strong efforts to conquer more of Ukraine, and to reform the Russian military to achieve that end. This was from the first third of this long ISW report. This link is well worth reading.
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested during an interview on April 19 that Russian forces will have to keep attacking further into Ukraine to protect the settlements that come under Russia’s expanding buffer zone, insinuating that the Kremlin intends to use the creation of a buffer zone to justify Russian offensive operations even further into Ukraine.[42] Medvedev’s and Zvinchuk’s comments highlight Russia’s likely intent to use this buffer zone narrative to justify Russia’s occupation of ALL OF UKRAINE. Medvedev’s decision to publish this post on his Russian-language Telegram channel suggests that his message is intended for a domestic Russian audience, and Medvedev may intend to generate support and excitement around an imagined future Russian victory in Ukraine ahead of Russia’s anticipated summer 2024 offensive operations, which will likely result in large-scale Russian personnel losses.
“Founder of the Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, gave an uncharacteristically public interview in which he criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and speculated on possible changes within the MoD. Zvinchuk gave an interview to Russian-language diaspora-focused outlet RTVi on May 18 that focused on the replacement of former Russian Defense Minister and current Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and corruption in the Russian MoD.[43] Zvinchuk complained about the Russian MoD’s bureaucratic issues and claimed that recently appointed Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov will need to start to make “positive changes” to the MoD within three months before people “start asking questions.”
If Putin’s agents succeed in these “positive changes”, it may well make Russia more effective militarily. Russian milbloggers are being given freer rein to criticize to mobilize public support. Will our belated Ukraine military aid arrive soon enough to blunt these efforts? In my next comment I will post “KEY TAKEAWAYS” from the first third of this ISW report.
Here I continue with the ISW report linked at AdmSmith’s Comment #6,399, stressing Putin’s possible future moves, and giving the key takeaways from the FIRST THIRD of this very informative ISW article.
“Zvinchuk (a popular Russian milblogger) may be trying to use his public interview to gauge the Kremlin’s response to critical voices following Shoigu’s replacement with Belousov. Considering Zvinchuk’s affiliations with the Kremlin, however, the Kremlin may have tasked Zvinchuk with criticizing the Russian MoD publicly while dictating the content and severity of his statements, which may establish an accepted bound of criticisms against the MoD. Any possible Kremlin permittance of increased criticisms of the Russian MoD from Russian milbloggers could lead to bureaucratic reforms that improve the efficacy of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, especially when coupled with Belousov’s and Putin’s intentions to mobilize the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.[48]
“Key Takeaways:
“* Russian forces have recently intensified their effort to seize the operationally significant town of Chasiv Yar, seeking to exploit how Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast and ongoing offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine have generated greater theater-wide pressure on Ukrainian forces.
* Russian forces are likely preparing for the second phase of their offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast, which Russian forces likely intend to launch following their anticipated seizure of Vovchansk.
* Zelensky also outlined materiel requirements for Ukraine to combat Russia’s air superiority and defend against the Russian air threat, especially given US-imposed restraints on Ukraine that prohibit Ukraine from striking targets within Russian territory and airspace.
* Ukrainian officials have reportedly asked the US presidential administration to ease the restriction against using US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
* Zelensky noted that Ukraine must overcome its manpower challenges in order to contest the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine.
* Ukraine’s new mobilization law went into effect on May 18 and will help Ukraine stabilize its force generation apparatus amid ongoing manpower constraints.
* Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev called for Russia’s envisioned “buffer zone” to encompass all of Ukraine, illustrating that the Kremlin’s concept of the buffer zone is a thinly veiled justification for Russia’s long-held intent to subsume the entirety of Ukraine and likely an effort to garner domestic support for the Russian war effort.
* Founder of the Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, gave an uncharacteristically public interview in which he criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and speculated on possible changes in the MoD.
* Should the Kremlin allow select prominent Russian milbloggers to increase their criticisms of the Russian MoD, public pressure may grow in favor of reforms that would, if implemented, assist Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
* Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili vetoed the Russian-style “foreign agents” bill on May 18, but the ruling Georgian Dream party will likely override Zurabishvili’s veto in the coming weeks.
* Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka, Hulyaipole, and Robotyne.
* The BBC News Russian Service reported on May 18 that Russian military authorities in Astana, Kazakhstan, detained a Russian contract service personnel (kontraktnik) for desertion on April 23 – the first such instance in Kazakhstan.”
I will continue to read this meaty ISW report upon return in a few days from a business trip, and report on additional points of special interest to all Ukraine supporters.