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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2024

Russian officials are tying the US and the West to a broader set of “terrorist” attacks against Russia following the Crocus City Hall attack, likely to intensify rhetoric about alleged Western and Ukrainian threats to generate greater domestic support for the war in Ukraine. The Russian Investigative Committee and Prosecutor General's Office stated on March 27 that they will consider an appeal from the Russian State Duma to investigate American and Western financing and organization of terrorist attacks against Russia.[7] The Russian Investigative Committee, Prosecutor General's Office, and the Duma Deputies that made the appeal did not explicitly reference the Crocus City Hall attack.[8] Kremlin officials have previously tied Ukraine and the West to the Crocus City Hall attack but have yet to make a formal accusation, and the Kremlin may refrain from issuing an official accusation as all available evidence continues to show that the Islamic State (IS) is very likely responsible for the attack.[9]

Russian officials routinely describe Ukrainian military strikes against legitimate military targets in occupied Ukraine and Russia as terrorism and consistently claim that Western actors help organize these strikes.[10] The Kremlin likely aims to seize on wider Russian social fears and anger following the Crocus City Hall attack by portraying Ukraine, the US, and the West as immediate terrorist threats. The Kremlin likely hopes that perceptions of Ukrainian and Western involvement in the Crocus City Hall attack will increase domestic support for the war in Ukraine, and Russian officials will likely invoke a broader view of what they consider terrorism to further cast Ukrainians as terrorists and the West as a sponsor of terrorism.[11] The Kremlin may still formally accuse Ukraine of conducting the Crocus City Hall attack if it believes that these other informational efforts are insufficient to generate the domestic response it likely desires.[12]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-27-2024

6,148 posted on 03/28/2024 4:07:33 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2024

Russia continues efforts to source ballistic missiles and other weapons from North Korea for use in Ukraine. North Korea-focused outlet NK Pro reported on March 27 that two Russian aircraft, including a Russian cargo plane reportedly involved in delivering North Korean missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, traveled between North Korea and Russia on the night of March 20 to 21.[76] NK Pro reported that the cargo plane likely flew from Vladivostok to Pyongyang and that an unspecific South Korea-US intelligence source stated that the plane picked up unspecified cargo 50 feet in length, presumably short-range ballistic missiles. NK Pro noted that the other aircraft, a Russian Tu-154 passenger aircraft likely transporting a Russian government delegation, has flown between Vladivostok and Pyongyang at least four times over the past month.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-28-2024

6,153 posted on 03/29/2024 7:45:06 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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