Venezuelans on Sunday approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over an oil- and mineral-rich area of neighboring Guyana it argues was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago.
It remains unclear how Maduro will enforce the results of the vote. But Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has its residents on edge.
Among the five questions asked on Sunday were whether Venezuela should ignore the international arbitrators at The Hague, grant Venezuelan citizenship to Essequibo's English-speaking inhabitants and convert the 160,000 sq km of territory into a new Venezuelan state.
Both Guyana and Venezuela have increased military activity on their borders in recent weeks as tensions between the bickering nations reached unprecedented heights. Brazil also sent troops to its jungle frontier over the weekend as fears grew that the vote could spark military action.
But voting stations across the country were largely empty, national and international media reported. “I have seen no independent reports of queues anywhere in the country. It looked like a normal Sunday in Caracas,” says Phil Gunson, analyst at international crisis group. “It was a resounding failure for Maduro.”
Venezuela’s government has said that more than 10.5 million people voted in the referendum – which would be a higher number than voted to re-elect Maduro’s more popular predecessor, Hugo Chávez, in 2012. An image purported to have been shared and later deleted by Venezuela’s electoral authority showed a table with about 2 million votes for each of the five questions, suggesting that they tallied the number of votes rather than voters to spin the public relations disaster.
The Venezuelan government has not published any detailed or regional results, adding to doubts around their validity. “If the government stands by their claim that this is a massive success they should have no difficulty in publishing the breakdown of votes,” said Geoff Ramsey, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “This is a massive PR disaster for Maduro. They’ve been firing the propaganda machine on all cylinders for months but despite their best efforts turnout is way below what we expected,” he added.
Intelligence collected by Guyana and its allies suggest the actual turnout was fewer than 1.5 million people – less than a 10th of the population – said a source close to the Guyanese government who described the move as “rigonomics”. “I think Maduro miscalculated in a very, very big way,” the source added. Nonetheless, Maduro was quick to hail the vote – in which 95% of those who voted yes to the government's five questions – as a victory.
Brazilian Army Mobilizes to Venezuelan Border amid Guyana-Venezuela Dispute
The Brazilian military is strengthening its northern border, moving armored vehicles and an increased number of troops to Boa Vista, the capital of Roraima state that borders both Venezuela and Guyana. This escalation follows the Venezuelan referendum on Sunday, approving the annexation of the Esequibo. The Guaicuru armored vehicles will supplement the upgraded 18th Mechanized Cavalry Regiment, whose force will double to bolster security along the border and intensify surveillance, mitigating any potential surprises.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) recently ordered Venezuela to refrain from any actions that could alter the current situation in the disputed territories on the border with Guyana. However, the Brazilian military's presence near the Venezuelan border signals a level of preparedness for any eventuality.
