Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov may have compelled the Russian theater commander in Ukraine, Army General Valery Gerasimov, to resume artillery ammunition distribution to Wagner forces in Bakhmut despite Gerasimov’s desired de-prioritization of that effort.
Kadyrov’s threats to transfer his forces to Bakhmut may have blackmailed the Russian military command into allocating ammunition to Wagner mercenaries.
Kadyrov likely supported Wagner's blackmail efforts against the Russian military command to reestablish his position within the circle of power of the Kremlin.
Gerasimov’s apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and those commanders’ ability to force his hand suggests that chain of command problems are significantly impacting the Russian military's ability to conduct coherent theater-wide operations.
These events raise questions about Russia's ability to coordinate a coherent theater-wide defensive campaign.
Prigozhin’s and Kadyrov’s ability to significantly influence Russian military command decisions relies on Putin's willingness to appease them and his reliance on their forces – both of which will likely degrade after further blackmail efforts.
Prigozhin’s continued fight to complete the capture of Bakhmut contradicts his consistent narrative that capturing Bakhmut lacks strategic value.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna.
Russian forces made some territorial gains in Bakhmut as of May 7 and continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched up to 23 drones at Crimea on the night of May 6 to 7.
Russian federal subjects are continuing to recruit and form regional armed formations and volunteer battalions.
Russian occupation authorities continue to plan and carry out forced evacuations from Zaporizhia Oblast.
Read the interesting details:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2023
Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of May 7 to 8.
Russian-occupied Transnistria called on Russia to increase its peacekeepers in the region likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to destabilize Moldova.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use the Victory Day parade to show Russia's continued influence in Central Asia.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces have made marginal advances within Bakhmut as of May 8 amid reports of intensified Wagner Group forces offensive operations and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces continued defensive operations in southern Ukraine.
Russian authorities have reportedly escalated their campaign targeting ethnic minorities for contract service in the Russian military.
Russian occupation authorities continued to forcibly evacuate civilians in rear areas in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
Senior Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces may be preparing to conduct counteroffensive operations in May or June. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on May 7 that Ukrainian forces are preparing for “new events” in May or June 2023.[5] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov stated in a May 8 interview that the timing and location of a Ukrainian counteroffensive is not significant because Russian forces and leadership will panic regardless, but that he would not be surprised if “something,” possibly alluding to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, occurred in May or June.[6] The Ukrainian Defense Forces Military Media Center stated that Russian forces continue to transfer military equipment, ammunition, and supplies to Ukraine to prepare for a defensive operation against a Ukrainian counteroffensive push.[7]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-8-2023