His analysis is very good, and the information about Dugin even WRITING about fathers sacrificing their daughters makes me believe Dugin really was behind it. Consider also that it was reported that he was supposed to be in the car but then changed his mind for reasons unknown.
Yes, the probability is high.
About a month ago, Alexander Dugin had a face-to-face conversation with his good acquaintance, an FSB general, and this conversation was recorded by the general. During the conversation, Dugin laments about the “wrong way” that the Russian leadership chose in conducting a special military operation, about insufficient measures, about Putin's lack of determination to “wage a real, big war until the enemy is completely defeated,” etc. Dugin began by saying that an ideology without the author's willingness to make great sacrifices is only a utopia. Dugin said he thought a lot about why this is so, what is holding Putin back from “decisive action” and how it can be fixed. Further, Alexander told an incident that happened to him during a walk: walking through the streets thinking about how to help the president “save the country from falling into the abyss” and give Putin the impetus to rethink the situation and move him to take decisive action. Dugin saw a black-and-white kitten that was sitting on someone's fence in the yard and, at the sight of Alexander, walked along the fence towards him, waving his paw, “evaporated”, and after walking another hundred and fifty meters, he saw a very similar kitten, only dead. And then, according to Dugin, he realized that this was “a sign of fate.” He is a worthless person if he is not ready to sacrifice the most precious thing he has for the sake of the triumph of his ideas. And then, according to Dugin, he realized that this was “a sign of fate.” He is a worthless person if he is not ready to sacrifice the most precious thing he has for the sake of the triumph of his ideas. And then, according to Dugin, he realized that this was “a sign of fate.” He is a worthless person if he is not ready to sacrifice the most precious thing he has for the sake of the triumph of his ideas.
Dugin himself offered to sacrifice his daughter, which caused misunderstanding among the interlocutor. But Alexander spoke quite brightly and convincingly. He personally told the general that Putin also has daughters, and he will perceive the death of his (Dugin’s) daughter at the hands of “Western special services” as a personal tragedy and grief, and at that moment there will be a turning point in his creation, supposedly Putin must understand that the enemy sees weakness, that the enemy will stop at nothing, and the president's daughters may be next, so the enemy must be destroyed on the battlefield and victory won. The recording of the conversation was transferred directly to the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev, after which the aforementioned general was summoned to him. A few days later, another conversation between the general and Dugin took place, which was already recorded by the FSB,
The general suggested that Alexander make a forgery, organize the alleged murder of Dugin’s daughter, and in reality bring Daria out, placing the corpse of an outside woman disfigured beyond recognition, but Dugin resolutely rejected this proposal, saying that if the truth is revealed it will be a disaster for everyone. Subsequently, Alexander was contacted at least two more times and he confirmed his determination. The assassination attempt was prepared by the FSB and took two weeks. The date was not chosen by chance, and this event was really presented to Putin as the revenge of “Western curators of Navalny for his failed poisoning”, which, of course, is complete nonsense, but it had an effect on the president and quite impressively. Dugin himself knew neither the details of the assassination nor the timing; for him it was a kind of “surprise”. We will see what consequences this high-profile murder will have in the near future. But such sacrifices are usually in vain, Dugin’s empathy for the president is greatly overestimated.