Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
Russia has begun supplying modern radars and air defense equipment, according to the Iranian officials who spoke on the conditions of anonymity.
Iranian state television showed Shoigu and Bagheri greeting each other, meeting face-to-face, and then participating in a larger meeting at the negotiating table with members of the Russian delegation and Iranian military officials. “We are ready for full cooperation with Iran on regional issues,” Shoigu reportedly said. Bagheri also told Shoigu that the relationship between their nations was “deep, long-term, and strategic” and would only expand under Iran's new government, according to Iranian state media.
Russia also has economic and cultural ties with Israel, as a large number of Russian Jews live there. But Moscow cannot afford to refuse to help Tehran because it relies heavily on Iranian drones in Ukraine, NYT said.
Russian officials continue coordination and military cooperation with Iran ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel out of concern for Russian interests in the region. NOTE: a version of this text appears in ISW-CTP’s August 6 Iran Update. Reuters reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a message via Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu that Iran should act with restraint and avoid targeting civilians when retaliating against Israel.[16] An unspecified Iranian diplomat told IranWire that Russia is against Iranian strikes that could lead to the deaths of civilians due to the large number of Russian citizens who live in Israel.[17] The report did not specify how this Iranian diplomat has insight into the calculus behind the Russian decision making.
Russia is also reportedly assisting Iranian efforts to improve its air defenses against Israeli attacks. The New York Times (NYT), citing two unspecified Iranian officials including one Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) official, reported on August 5 that Russia began delivering unspecified advanced radars and air defense systems to Iran.[18] The NYT noted that Iranian media has previously reported that Iran sought to acquire Russian air defense systems to improve Iran's air defense network and defend against an Israeli strike. ISW-CTP continues to assess that Russia is increasing its cooperation with Iran, especially leaning into its growing military partnership, to shape Western decision-making into decisions favorable to Russia, particularly into pushing the West to self-deter against providing further military assistance to Ukraine.[19] Russia's reported decision to provide Iran with radar and air defense systems, which could significantly benefit Russian forces on the ground if instead deployed to Ukraine, also underscores Russia's ongoing reliance on Iran for other critical weapons, including high-precision weapons and weapons components.[20]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-6-2024
Russia supplies air defense systems to Iran. What about the front?
Recently, information appeared in the Western press that Russia, at Iran's request, began supplying air defense systems to that country. We, frankly, were surprised by this turn of events. For Iran, this is certainly a profitable deal. Especially on the eve of a military clash with Israel.
As for us, our interlocutors are extremely reluctant to talk about the transfer of military equipment abroad. This information is closed to the general public, but we managed to obtain confirmation. The military, however, do not hide their discontent.
“We have a shortage of air defense systems at the front. And we supply them to Iran,” one of the high-ranking military officials told us.
It is a paradoxical situation - the enemy receives F-16s and missiles, and we give our air defense to the allied troops. Is it any wonder that the enemy is attacking yet another unprotected oil refinery ?
There are many questions about the defense in the Kursk region
Many representatives of the military command were surprised to learn about the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region on August 6. Intelligence the day before reported on the preparation of sabotage, but not a full-fledged attack.
Border guards had to accept the battle. Alas, the career military from the “Akhmat” unit left the zone of active clashes. By the evening, there were rumors that they were already in Kursk. The transfer of reserves to the Kursk region is delayed, so conscripts had to fight back .
Will anyone be held responsible for what happened? I would like to know who and how missed the enemy's preparation for a massive offensive. At this time, the Kremlin is racking its brains over the political moment. Bombing your own cities with aircraft and artillery is not convenient. Otherwise, there is no chance of dislodging the enemy. The fighting continues.
And yes, we hope that we will not see more outright lies from the Ministry of Defense ( as it was yesterday ).
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4481
Meanwhile
Ukraine has denied any connection to Ukrainian military units in Kursk. Says they're rebels but urges Russia to stop bombing them & abide by a Minsk-style format whereby Moscow will get control of border back only *after* a referendum on the status of the region takes place.
There is some bad news about Kursk Oblast.
The level of degradation of state information policy in times of crisis is striking. The state was unable to adequately cope and respond to the breach of our border in Kursk Oblast. Alas, apart from lies and loud statements, little was offered to the mass user. We decided not to hype this topic, hoping that the authorities would be able to adequately build communication in the current situation. The only thing we came up with was to hold a meeting with the president and show the almost dying acting governor Smirnov. Very inspiring!
What we have as of Wednesday evening: more than 60 of our servicemen could have been captured, at least 23 were conscripts. The number of casualties has not been disclosed, but many died in the first hours due to panic. Unfortunately, adequate preparation for such a serious attack was not done. The medical system of the region was also not ready to receive the wounded.
By the evening, 5 settlements were lost. The information coming in on Sudzha is ambiguous, we cannot say 100% who controls the city.
Speaking of communication. Our own resources widely disseminated information about the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. Why was it necessary to whip up panic once again? After all, the population began to leave nervously even without an organized evacuation.
Gerasimov was given the task of driving the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the occupied territories by Friday evening. Otherwise, he may be fired. The latter aspect is lobbied by Defense Minister Belousov.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4483
It takes time for the Russians to realize that they have lost the war.
Ossetians don't want to fight? Why the situation in the Caucasus has worsened
Activists from North Ossetia have issued an open appeal to the head of the republic, Sergei Menyaino. The appeal primarily concerns the situation in the SVO zone and the participation of the indigenous people in military operations. More than 10 organizations have united and demanded that the head of the republic publish information on the number of Ossetians killed in the war.
Moreover, local residents insist on the need to stop involving residents of the republic in the SVO. They also ask the head of the republic to achieve partial demobilization for those Ossetians who are already at the front. And this is an important point. Menyaylo, naturally, did not immediately take the situation seriously. He is convinced that all this is the work of provocateurs who are trying to destabilize the situation in the region. At the same time, Menyaylo does not want to appear weak in the eyes of the Presidential Administration, so the only solution he has come to is to detain the active participants in the movement.
Menyaylo is a former military man. Therefore, his methods for solving problems are simple. Our sources believe that an attempt to put pressure on the local population could provoke unnecessary protests, and discontent could spill out onto the streets. Given the specifics of the Caucasus, the head of North Ossetia should be wiser in resolving this difficult issue. And yes, we consider making any exceptions within the framework of the citizens’ call to conduct SVO to be a huge mistake. There is a war going on now, and we must do everything to win!
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4482
12 organisations of North Ossetia asked in public letter to stop sending their men to war as “the decline of the indigenous population in the republic is becoming irreversible.” They demand addressing Putin, disclosure of data on North Ossetia’s losses, a week of mourning, banning the conscription from region and demobilization.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUWkO8DXsAED9dW?format=jpg&name=small
https://x.com/jaanikamerilo/status/1821044070132936719
Closer and closer to part 2 of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union
Select Russian milbloggers heavily criticized the Russian military command for not detecting preparations for or preventing Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast. Several Russian milbloggers complained that Russian forces should have prevented the Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast as Russian forces knew that Ukrainian forces had been accumulating forces and means in the area for the past several months.[16] Some of the milbloggers complained that the Russian military command's inadequate reaction was due to a lack of concern about the Ukrainian accumulations, unrealistic confidence in Russian defenses in the border area, assumptions about Ukrainian forces’ fatigue, or false reports about the situation.[17] A prominent Russian milblogger criticized Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov for not auditing the combat command system to remove ineffective commanders upon assuming his position as Minister of Defense and called for Russian authorities to punish incompetent commanders and liars.[18]
The milblogger further claimed that Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast prove that the Russian military command made “strategic miscalculations” and that nepotism in the Russian military is protecting ineffective military officials.[19] One Russian milblogger, who is often critical of the Russian military, notably applauded the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for editing its Telegram post to correct statements that were “overly optimistic” and blamed unspecified sources in the information space for spreading “excessively bravura” information about the situation.[20]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-7-2024
“...abide by a Minsk-style format whereby Moscow will get control of border back only *after* a referendum on the status of the region takes place.”
Oh, that’s rich, how Putin ran a referendum after 2014 in Crimea when large number of Crimeans had fled, and bunches of Russians had moved in.
Maria Zakharova:
Russia calls on the international community to strongly condemn the Kyiv regime’s criminal attacks on Russian territory.
https://t.me/regnum_na/61365
LOL!
General Mick Ryan: The Battle of Kursk 2024
A quick assessment of what we know about the surprise Ukrainian assault into Russia, and what might be Ukraine’s strategic and operational objectives.
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-kursk-2024
Long analysis
The Ukrainian Armed Forces used a relatively new tactic when entering Kursk. They are using and deploying new units of “rangers” and conditionally new units trained according to a new scheme. This tactic was recently tested in Kharkov, and those who saw it, signaled. But it received no attention.
The enemy in his native areas first normally “blows” the sky from our eyes, using an aircraft-type UAV. Then, under a barrage, he brings out targeted electronic warfare equipment almost to the first line. Under the cover of targeted forces, electronic warfare brings out a huge number of its UAVs. Mavics on a non-standard basis with boards that shift the range. Guns and electronic warfare are useless.
Under an incessant barrage of high-precision FPVs that go in swarms, he reduces the distance to the positions. They enters and consolidates in empty dismantled trenches in small groups for 4-6 hours under the cover of UAVs. The reconnaissance line is moved forward and the pattern is repeated.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces may expand their offensive to the Belgorod Region
This information was provided to us by intelligence sources. They called for this data to be published in order to force the military command to make a decision faster.
“We did not know about the preparation of a breakthrough to the Kursk Region. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced forward, and we had to urgently transfer reserves from the front. Now there is information that the enemy is preparing forces for a breakthrough directly to Belgorod. No matter how fantastic it may sound,” our interlocutor said. We hope that the command will not ignore the threat.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2024
The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have struggled to achieve operational surprise in the past year and a half of fighting due to the partially transparent battlefield in Ukraine. Ukraine’s ability to achieve operational surprise highlights that the widespread visual and sensor-based transparency that both sides have established does not translate into a fully transparent battlefield, however, and that the belligerents in Ukraine can leverage ambiguity around operational intent to achieve operational surprise. One Russian milblogger criticized the Russian military command for failing to observe and react to Ukrainian forces allegedly massing on the border near Kursk Oblast.[28] A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces continually warned the Russian high command about a massing of Ukrainian forces along the border near Kursk Oblast but that the Russian command failed to adequately prepare for potential Ukrainian offensive operations.[29] Ukrainian forces would have successfully concealed their operational intent in order to achieve operational surprise if milblogger claims that Russian forces observed a buildup of Ukrainian forces in border areas are accurate. ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces have failed to internalize lessons learned about the difficulties of mechanized maneuver on an assumed transparent battlefield in Ukraine.[30] Ukraine, however, appears to be learning and adapting to this aspect of the battlefield given its ability to achieve apparent operational surprise in this instance.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2024
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