Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
The NATO Secretary General proposed striking Russia. Serious complaints are already being put forward to Belousov . We warned literally the other day that NATO would allow the Kiev regime to attack all Russian territories with Western weapons (not only Crimea and new regions). Everything, unfortunately, is confirmed at a completely official level.
Sources in the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense claim that we have serious plans in the event of such a threat. And they even promise to tell us soon how we will punish the Americans and their accomplices for such impudence. At the same time, many military personnel are worried that our response may not be effective. “We played with internal squabbles, persecution of generals and redistribution of power in the Ministry of Defense- Threats are growing, and generals who really know how to fight are going to jail. Many are simply due to internal squabbles. It's impossible not to remember, for example, General Popov ,” an officer close to General Mikhail Teplinsky told us.
Another high-ranking military officer made a serious attack on Andrei Belousov. “I understand that thieves need to be imprisoned. But now every general is worth his weight in gold. Have we already won the [war in Ukraine]? Or is the Minister of Defense waiting for NATO missiles to arrive in Moscow, and only then will he begin to set priorities correctly? I don't understand,” he said. We asked people from Belousov’s circle to comment on these claims. But they said they did not want to respond to those who “resist real change and do not want a real strengthening of our army.”
I note that for at least 6 days in a row, Russian personnel losses have ranged from 1200 to 1400. I wonder if these “meat wave” attacks in the Kharkiv area have been to either take more territory or kill off more wagners before Putin makes a significant change in his plans. If he is in fact losing, the fewer types still around willing to march on Moscow, the happier Putin will be if he does have to admit to the egg on his face.
The West recognized Russia's superiority in the production of shells. Two important points about this
Sky News published estimates from the consulting company Bain & Company that the Russian military industry produces artillery shells three times faster and four times cheaper than in the United States and Europe. This is a really important point, because shells now play a huge role on the battlefield and provide the very barrage that allows us to move forward.
Of course, it is important to know your strengths. But it is worth making a few extremely important clarifications.
Firstly, our production really works much more efficiently. Sources clarify that by the end of this year they want to reach the production target of 5 million shells (Sky News writes that 4.5 million). At the same time, we should not forget that the accuracy of 152 mm shells is not always ideal. Even well-trained artillerymen are not always able to cover the desired targets with the first or second hit. Although, it is worth noting that there is now enough real field practice.
Daily spending on shells is at least 50 thousand per day, and more often 60 and even 70 thousand. That is, in monthly equivalent, this is approximately 2 million shells. That is, the current production rate is enough for 2.5-3 months at best. That is why Vladimir Vladimirovich will personally fly to the DPRK , and really hopes to receive shells not only from North Korea, but also from China. Beijing, alas, is not yet ready to take such a step.
Secondly, the West is really trying to increase production volumes, although this is an extremely slow process. The fact that European bureaucrats are, in principle, far from the concept of war plays into our hands, which is why it takes them a long time to prepare documents, select production sites, etc. Even Ukraine is much more agile in this regard, and scales up the production of shells much faster. Although, of course, it cannot provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with its own production.
An important detail is that our intelligence services are making efforts to thwart Western plans to increase the production of shells in Europe. This is not a big secret, and telegram channels associated with the Russian Ministry of Defense have already recalled that there have already been fires at some factories in Europe . This is war, and in war all means are fair.
“Black Colonel” V. Alksnis
As for the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strikes on our missile attack warning system and the disabling of two radars of this system, I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that there will be no retaliatory strikes. Firstly, there is practically nothing to respond with, with the exception of tactical nuclear weapons, and secondly, our leadership in this regard completely lacks political will and determination to go to the end. And thirdly, during V. Putin’s recent visit to China, President V. Putin and Chairman Xi in the final documents recorded the inadmissibility of the use of nuclear weapons.
And it seems to me that behind these agreements, first of all, lies Chairman Xi’s ban on such use, and President V. Putin was forced to take on such an obligation.
https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/1388
“Old friends” found new dirt on the philosopher Dugin. And they said when “they will show it to the whole world.”
The leader of the “Metal Corrosion” group, Sergei (“Spider”) Troitsky, continues to blackmail Alexander Dugin with videos in which he engages in pedophilia, takes drugs and “zigs naked.” Moreover, new incriminating evidence has appeared on Alexander Gelyevich. “Dugin just sent us. He didn't help at all, despite all his connections (Troitsky asked the philosopher, his old acquaintance, to put in a word so that the authorities would unblock the normal activities of the group in Russia - ed.). He will answer for this. He has a month to resolve the issue with the Kremlin so that we can live normally. Or let him compensate for the losses and pay us the loot. There are almost no concerts, it's just bullshit,” one of the musicians from “Metal Corrosion” angrily told us.
According to him, Troitsky is now negotiating with several Western TV channels. Some of them are already ready to show the “cruelest” video with Dugin and even pay money for it. At the same time, the philosopher was given that same month to solve the problems of “Metal Corrosion”. Otherwise, this video “will be seen by the whole world.” Another musician of “Metal Corrosion” admitted that new incriminating evidence on Dugin had appeared. “Video from one of our fires. There are three more men there along with Dugin. They actively display what is now called prohibited Nazi symbols. And they perform, let's say, not very natural actions with each other and with a bottle of vodka. This is even more fun than, for example, Dugin, who throws naked zigs,” a source in the group shared information with us.
At the same time, Alexander Gelevich himself was no longer able to defend “Metal Corrosion”, but, on the contrary, turned Vladimir Putin against it. But he doesn't want to pay musicians money. Therefore, he puts forward many ideas, thanks to which (at least Dugin is counting on this) his name will sound loudly in the press. What will interrupt the information effect from the possible publication of incriminating evidence.
We wrote that Dugin wants to ban divorce in Russia . He has many more ideas - banning the dollar ( this idea of Alexander Gelyevich has not yet been implemented), banning chanson music, compulsory study in schools of the works of Yegor Letov and the Civil Defense group, prison sentences for abortions, and so on. Whether any of these ideas will be realized, time will tell.
The report on a possible big clash with the West was presented to the president personally by Valery Gerasimov. According to sources in the General Staff, he drew Vladimir Vladimirovich's attention to three things.
Firstly, the military is confident that the likelihood of a major war with NATO has already increased this year. But the basic scenario remains the same as we wrote about - a collision is most likely possible in 2025-2027. “NATO is now superior to us in finance and in certain types of weapons. For example, it will be difficult for us to defend ourselves against a large-scale missile attack from the West. But NATO is indecisive and cowardly. And this is our advantage,” Gerasimov noted.
Secondly, the Chief of the General Staff confirmed that with a high degree of probability the Americans and a significant part of their allies will allow the Kiev regime to use Western weapons throughout Russia. We have repeatedly warned about this . Unfortunately, our warnings were confirmed not only by Gerasimov, but also, for example, by the Swedes , who actually gave the appropriate permission to Ukraine.
Thirdly, due to the growing threat, Gerasimov believes that Russia needs to mobilize from 200 to 400 thousand people. Moreover, it is quite urgent, it needs to be carried out in the next 2-4 months. Otherwise, we “may lose territories.” Our sources did not specify which ones exactly.
Putin took the opinion of the head of the General Staff into account. It is still difficult for the interlocutors to say whether any decisions will be made on this basis.
I’m glad to see you are following through with learning more about Alexander Dugin, since he appears to have profound influence on Putin. Given that one of his main proposals was to use Russian Services to sow confusion in the US and Canada, I suspect some of these campus rallies with many non students could be one result of Russian Services action. Also given some of the crazy ideas being proposed regarding women, like prison sentences for abortions, I wonder if some of our religious groups have been infiltrated and ideas planted now causing much US internal strife. I also found your next comment #6,468 with 3 statements by General Gerasimov regarding possible future military success or failure by Russia most interesting.
According to sources close to Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, the military leader did not receive a response to his previous appeals to Andrei Belousov ( you can read one of them here ). And I decided to publicly address the Minister of Defense again using our channel.
Firstly , Teplinsky notes that his call to improve the situation in the Kherson region has not been heard. “We are stuck in the Kharkov region, when we could have strengthened the Dnepr group of troops. We inflict huge losses on the enemy, but despite this, the Ukrainian Nazis achieved certain tactical successes. And we, too, unfortunately, suffer losses,” says the military man. “Sometimes it seems that no one is going to liberate Kherson at all. And this needs to be done,” he said indignantly.
Secondly , according to Teplinsky, “the authorities have not yet heard” the call to strengthen the front with new commanders. “We won't say more, and everything is clear ,” said a source close to the general.
Thirdly , Teplinsky turned to Belousov: “I've already said it, but I'll repeat it. I do not aspire to high positions, but I am ready to take responsibility. At the same time, it is difficult to accept the fact that the Minister of Defense does not respond to my requests. I ask Andrei Removich to take the time and discuss current issues together. I know how important Russia's victory is for him.”
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4158
It can be assumed that Teplinski speaks for a majority of the military on the ground, but the politicians in the Kremlin don't know what to do. If they act against Teplinski, they risk a Prigozhin march again.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24, 2024
Russia is currently preparing for the possibility of a conventional war with NATO, and the Kremlin will likely view anything short of Ukrainian capitulation as an existential threat to Russia’s ability to fight such a war.[19] Russian military leaders planning a war against NATO will have to assume that Ukraine might enter such a war on NATO’s behalf regardless of Ukraine’s membership status.[20] A front with NATO along Russia’s entire western border with Europe presents the Russian military with serious challenges, as ISW has previously assessed, whereas a Ukrainian defeat would give Russia the ability to deploy its forces along Europe’s entire eastern flank from the Black Sea to Finland.[21] Russian victory in Ukraine would not only remove the threat of Ukraine as a potential adversary during a possible conventional war with NATO but would also provide Russia with further resources and people to commit to a large-scale confrontation with NATO. Regardless of how Russian victory would partition Ukraine between Russian annexation and the Kremlin-controlled puppet state that would follow Putin’s desired regime change, Russia would have access to millions more people it could impress into military service and the majority of Ukraine’s resources and industrial capacity. Putin and the Kremlin therefore likely view victory in Ukraine as a prerequisite to being able to fight a war with NATO and any ceasefire or negotiated settlement short of full Ukrainian capitulation as a temporary pause in their effort to destroy an independent Ukrainian state.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2024
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2024
Russia is likely helping North Korea develop its defense industrial base (DIB) in exchange for North Korean munitions supplies, and US officials reportedly assess that Russia may also be supplying North Korea with military equipment, weapons, or technology. NBC reported on May 24 citing six senior US officials that the Biden administration is concerned that the Russian-North Korean relationship could help North Korea expand its nuclear capabilities.[40] US officials reportedly stated that Russia may push North Korea to conduct its “most provocative military actions in a decade” close to the US presidential election in November 2024. NBC reported that a senior US official stated that US intelligence officials assess that Russia is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in return for North Korea’s provision of munitions to Russia. US officials reportedly assess that Russia may be helping North Korea develop a long-range ballistic missile that can re-enter the atmosphere with its payload intact — likely referring to the capability required to field an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
NBC noted, however, that US officials stated that they do not have an “entirely clear understanding” of what technology Russia is giving to North Korea as it is difficult to detect and track military technology exchanges. NBC reported that US officials also stated that North Korea may want Russian ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, and armored vehicles and that Russia may help North Korea develop its own DIB. Known facts suggest that Russia is likely at least helping North Korea develop its DIB. Western officials previously stated that North Korea supplied Russia with more than one million artillery shells in 2023.[41] Although these shells are reportedly mostly old, North Korean authorities likely would have agreed to relinquish such a high quantity of munitions only if they thought they would be able to replenish their stockpiles in the near future.[42] North Korea’s ability to produce such a high quantity of shells rapidly would likely require some level of Russian funding and assistance.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2024
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26, 2024
Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) will reportedly manufacture and refurbish three times as many artillery shells as the West will produce in 2024, although Russian shells reportedly suffer from quality-control issues and Ukrainian artillery is reportedly more precise than Russian artillery. Sky News, citing open-source research from US-based consulting firm Bain & Company, reported on May 26 that Russian DIB producers will likely be able to manufacture and refurbish 4.5 million artillery shells in 2024 compared to 1.3 million artillery shells that the US and European countries will collectively produce in 2024.[11] Sky News reported that it costs Western countries about $4,000 to produce one NATO-standard 155mm shell – although this price “significantly” varies depending on the country of production – while it costs Russia about $1,000 to produce one 152mm shell. The report does not make clear if the dollar value comparison between the price to produce one shell accounts for the difference in purchasing power parity between Western countries and Russia, however.
A Ukrainian artillery battery commander operating in northern Kharkiv Oblast told Sky News that Russian forces operating in this area have a five-to-one artillery shell advantage but noted that Ukrainian forces can “completely destroy” a target using one to three shells. Ukrainian and Western officials and several Russian milbloggers previously stated that Ukrainian artillery is more precise than Russian artillery despite the fact that Russian artillery supplies greatly outnumber those of Ukrainian forces.[12] Russian milbloggers recently complained that the amount of gunpowder in Russian artillery shells widely varies, causing artillery systems to perform inconsistently.[13] The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported in March that Russia currently has about three million rounds of old artillery ammunition in its stockpiles, but that much of it is in poor condition.[14] RUSI and other Western analysts also assessed that Russia’s current domestic ammunition production is not sufficient for its war in Ukraine, so Russia will likely continue relying on supplies from partners.[15] Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported in February that Russia had imported about 1.5 million rounds of ammunition from North Korea, but that about half of the munitions did not function and the other half required restoration or inspection before use.[16]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26-2024
The New York Times (NYT) reported on May 26 that Western intelligence officials stated that the Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) are behind a series of low-level sabotage operations throughout Europe that aim to disrupt Western arms supplies to Ukraine and create the appearance of a European movement opposing support for Ukraine.[15] The NYT stated that the GRU often recruits locals to conduct arsons and noted that the concerted Russian effort has targeted a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia, an IKEA store in Lithuania, and a warehouse in the United Kingdom connected with arms supplies to Ukraine. Western officials have recently reported on widespread Russian sabotage efforts throughout Europe, and NATO reported on May 2 that Russia is intensifying its hybrid activities in Europe.[16] Russian investigative outlet The Insider reported on April 29 that GRU agents established a long-term presence in the Czech Republic and Greece and have been conducting operations, including attacks on ammunition depots and assassination attempts, since 2014.[17]
Russian officials are considering delisting the Taliban as a prohibited organization in Russia and will likely do so in the near term. Russian Special Representative to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov stated on May 27 that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Ministry of Justice reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia can remove the Taliban from its list of prohibited organizations.[24] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Taliban is the “real power” in Afghanistan and that the initiative to remove the Taliban from the prohibited organization list “reflects objective reality.”[25] Russian officials have yet to delist the Taliban as a prohibited organization, but Kabulov’s and Lavrov’s comments suggest that Russia will do so in the near term. Kabulov added that Taliban representatives will attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in early June 2024.[26]
Putin met with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Tashkent on May 27 and signed a statement on bilateral commitments, which included intentions to promote peace and stability in Afghanistan.[27] The Kremlin has maintained contacts with the Taliban since the Taliban deposed the Afghan government in 2021, although more outright Russian recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan will likely portend increased Russian-Taliban cooperation. Russia likely hopes to leverage its relationship with the Taliban to degrade the operations of Afghan-based Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), which organized and conducted the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Moscow, among other things.[28] The Taliban continue efforts to repress anti-Taliban groups throughout Afghanistan, including ISKP, and Russia may hope to help the Taliban intensify its anti-ISKP activities.[29] Kazakhstan delisted the Taliban as a terrorist organization in December 2023, and Uzbekistan has expanded agreements with the Taliban in recent years.[30] Russia may view direct engagement with the Taliban as an increasingly normalized trend among Central Asian states.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-27-2024
This information was given to us by two sources in the FSB. “There are bad signals that Prigozhin’s associates want to “celebrate” the anniversary of his rebellion. So that they don't do anything stupid, we will follow them,” said one of the interlocutors.
Another noted that “all sorts of unpleasant things could happen at the end of June, but we won't allow anything like that.” Also, according to his information, in the period from June 20 to 25, Vladimir Putin plans to leave Moscow “just in case” (as he did during the Wagner uprising last year).
We were unable to confirm this information one hundred percent. Some sources in the FSO say that this is true, while others refuse to comment on such rumors. By the way, it is possible that on these dates Vladimir Vladimirovich will make a foreign visit - to the DPRK or another country.
Sources among Yevgeny Viktorovich's old associates are surprised that they are going to be under increased surveillance. “It is unpleasant. But since the FSB is afraid of something, they probably have reasons for it. True, these fears are unlikely to be connected with us. It would be better if they kept an eye on the Tajiks,” said one of the Wagnerites.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4159
Tajiks = ISKP that was resonsible for the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Moscow
We wrote [https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6384#6384 ] that the remains of Alexander Suvorov were divided into two parts - one was being transported to the front, and the other to defense enterprises. Sergei Shoigu demanded that the second part be urgently brought to his home. “Sergei Kuzhugetovich spent several days for several hours near the ashes of Alexander Vasilyevich. And after that he somehow became calmer,” a close associate of Shoigu told us.
It is unknown what caused such actions by the Secretary of the Security Council. Some comrades believe that the reason is the purges among the generals that are being carried out now. And Shoigu fears that they will reach him. But these are just assumptions for now. By the way, some of our interlocutors are surprised. After all, until now no one has had any questions about the fact that Suvorov’s remains were not only taken out of the grave and exposed to danger at the front, but also divided into two parts. We have not yet been able to find out Andrei Belousov’s position on this matter.
´
earlier https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6416#6416
Call for Banning Niqāb Highlights Problems in Moscow’s Turn to the East and Stress on Traditional Values, ‘Nezavisimaya Gazeta’ Says. by Paul Goble
Staunton, May 23 – Only a few years ago, few Muslim women wore the niqāb, a form of dress that covers all of their bodies except for their eyes; but now that has become commonplace and it is no longer a rarity to see Muslim women in Russian cities wearing even chadors which conceal the eyes behind a screen.
Not surprisingly, this trend has both frightened and outraged many Russians including Valery Fadeyev, the head of the Presidential Council on Human Rights, who says that Moscow should ban the niqab and even more extreme forms of dress not only because they are not traditional to Russia but are part of a dangerous radicalization of Muslims there.
In his appeal, Fadeyev points to the growing interest in guns by Russia’s Muslims and especially migrant workers from Muslim countries as a threat to Russia’s stability and territorial integrity, a call that has sparked opposition from both Muslim leaders as not only untrue by counterproductive.
Perhaps the most thoughtful response to this debate comes from the editors of Nezavsimaya Gazeta who place it in the context of larger trends in Russian public life and suggest that Moscow should see both the niqab and calls for its ban as warning signs about the consequences of the regime’s policies (ng.ru/editorial/2024-05-23/2_9014_red.html).
Two of the most often proclaimed Kremlin policies are its turn to the east and its commitment to traditional values, the editors write. But these are not unproblematic as the debate about the niqab shows. The situation with regard to the niqab is especially indicative in this regard.
Many now defending the niqab are relying on Moscow’s turn to the east and suggesting that any ban on this form of dress would undermine Russia’s relations with the east. But if Russia is to be sovereign, the editors continue, then it must be sovereign in both directions. And the regime needs to make that clear.
“The same goes for traditionalism,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta says. It is an open question whether the niqab is in fact a manifestation of a commitment to traditionalism. Many experts say that in fact it is “a reaction to the extremes of progressivism and represent a completely post-modern idea of zels in the faith rather than to any memory of the past.”
For that reason, the editors say, “the declaration of traditional values [by the Putin regime] should be clarified. Society needs to know exactly what the traditions of the peoples of Russi are and where the line is between health conservatism and religious fanaticism and between the memory of ancestors and radical obscurantism.”
https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/05/call-for-banning-niqab-highlights.html
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