The longer the war goes on, the more political and economic damage to Putin and Russia. While there are Ukrainian citizens dying every day, for every day the war continues, and as long as they don’t lose, the more bargaining power the Ukrainians have. This is just the cold calculous of this conflict.
I suspect Putin is shocked by the response of the Russian people. When people know they will be arrested for protesting and they do it anyway, that demonstrates a level of disaffection totally unexpected. Putin probably expected a wave of patriotism like he’s experienced before. But not this time. He misjudged the situation, and he must know that by now. Putin needs a face-saving way out. The secret of ending the war is to give Putin some political bone while getting him to withdraw at the same time. (How that’s done, I have no idea. but that’s why we have diplomats. The problem is, I’ve met a few Department of State people. They were gay, waffly, and focused in on unicorns and fairies.)
Well it’s very high stakes diplomacy at this juncture when you have the Nuclear option being waved about by both sides.
Still I can’t shake off the ‘danger’ this could put Israel in if Bennett favors Ukraine too much. Israel is our footprint in that area of the world....Putin knows this. Right now tensions are practically off the scale in that part of the world....it’s a very dicey situation.
“I suspect Putin is shocked by the response of the Russian people. When people know they will be arrested for protesting and they do it anyway, that demonstrates a level of disaffection totally unexpected.”
Pure speculation. The only large crowd of people (over several hundred) that I’ve seen protesting, so far, is in Berlin, and I doubt that bothers Putin. As to the smaller demonstrations in Russia, happens in every war, no one wants to be cannon fodder and they still have a draft there. What I’m more interested in is whether they’ll be jailed for over a year without trial, as seems to happen in one ‘free’ country that I know of.
I have said that Russians followed putin because they thought he was leading a wave of Russian patriotism. Putin thought they were following him because he is leading a wave of Soviet resurgence.
Both were wrong.
Pulling the nuclear threat is like pulling the divorce card over a spat on what color to paint the house. Irrational and no intention to compromise considered. That is what a weakling who is losing with no place to turn does.
Disturbing. His own people should take him out.
I had hoped we had gone beyond that but as long as there is that option we have not.
I have a gun but I don’t carry. If I load it and carry it I will be intending to use it. If I use it my intention will be to kill. There is no other reason to have it. Brandishing and threatening make too many opportunities for mistakes. All the same with nukes.