It is hard to get into the head of a man like Putin, but I will attempt to make a few observations.
He rose up from the ranks of the KGB, as an admitted Orthodox Christian, in a government that had major issues with religion. That implies he is VERY good at playing political games (his life actions make me question his commitment to his faith, but he baptized his kids during a time where that could be a career ending move).
He has also been in power for over 20 years. With a massive amount of wealth, power, and privilege. People in such positions need to be ruthless to survive, and the people around them realize they have to sanitize the news for the boss or be removed. Happens in school boards, small companies, large companies, nation states, etc. The guy at the helm may not have the best view of reality.
So you have a ruthless man, with a long history of surviving difficult situations, but now rich and on top of the heap, looking at a real threat. And NATO going to the Ukraine was a real threat. Note that Ukraine has been a mess for a long time. Everyone around the world has had their finger in Ukraine, and it was more or less tolerated UNTIL they elected a comedian that started talking about joining NATO. Now Putin, who has been in an bubble of yes men, has a problem that can not be sanitized, hidden, or ignored.
I believe he thought he could just roll in quickly, remove the head of the Ukraine, set up a new government, and go home for tea. Russia positioned a lot of troops on the borders a month or more ago but then did.. nothing. When they did move it was in an extremely limited and cautious way. That implies that 1. He cares about protecting civilian lives and infrastructure. 2. Someone among his power base is NOT willing to go kill a bunch of family members (the Ukraine and Russia are very intertwined).
Or, 3. His army is not able to launch a full attack.
If this drags on, the army is going to get more and more upset. They may have relatives in Ukraine. They may BE from Ukraine. It is one thing to go after muslims in Chechneia, another to attack other Orthodox next door that have close ties to you.
So the clock is ticking. If things could have been done quickly in a day, no one would be upset. But the longer this goes on the more “real” it gets back home. The more pushback Putin gets. At some point, it becomes easier to send in the rest of the armored groups in and quickly finish things, than let the long slow drama play out.
Add in NATO’s reaction force heading to Poland, Romania, and the Baltics, and Putin has at best days to finish Ukraine and pivot, or he will have a hostile force on three fronts (Romania, Poland, and the Baltics). He can not allow that to happen.
My bet is we will see a move tomorrow. Either the rest of the brigades start flooding in, or canned sunshine being openly threatened (nukes) or used. Putin can not allow a NATO force to get a foothold on his border with the bleeding ulcer of Kiev going on.
Excellent analysis like this makes me glad I come to Free Republic on a regular basis.
<>You will never get this with the conventional media.
This (and Putin's plans) go back much further. The key element is the general movement in most of Ukraine for self-determination and to join the EU. Most Ukrainians are not dumb - they could see how most other recent additions to the EU were doing much better than they (Ukraine), could see that the rampant corruption at all levels was holding Ukraine back, and knew how, historically, Russian domination had worked out for them.
It is the "cancer" of the EU and the tamping down of the most blatant corruption that scares the Russian elites most, precisely because Russia and Ukraine have been so intertwined. Trying a more Western model didn't work out very well for Russia, but, sooner or later the mass of the populace, which is really rather poor, would figure out WHY. Russia has nothing to fear from NATO so long as Russia doesn't do stupid stuff. Their powerful have EVERYTHING to fear from the example of a self-determined economically successful Ukraine.