For one thing, he didn’t expect demonstrations in Moscow against what he did.
For another, he didn’t expect Zelensky to show such strength.
Another thing, Europe is shocked and angry that he is doing such a stupid thing. Nato has come back from being asleep and the general feel of ...including CNN...that what he did was a political disaster.
When I saw him yesterday, he looked different...red cheeks, eyes like deer in headlights...IMO he has come to the realization that what he is doing is STUPID.
Ukraine is a sovereign country. Putin’s comparing it to Nazi Germany is foolish. Zelensky is Jewish. THAT was a mistake.
But I could be wrong.
Russians are a macho culture like old school latin cultures.
If Putin is showing weakness, his life will soon be over. If you are the alpha wolf, when you get weak you die.
I was looking solely at the military operations. I am a bit impressed, because if the US did this we would have leveled Kiev by now and have a burning highway of wreckage doing it. He has left most of his forces on the borders, and is sending small (relatively so) strike forces in. The power and internet remained on, with people milling around Russian military forces. That is so odd that I can’t understand it. Again, the US would NEVER allow that, and would have been forcibly pushing the civilians away for fear of IEDs.
They (Russia) has managed to minimize civilian causalities while steadily advancing to Kiev.
But he has to finish it soon. If NATO starts mobilizing, the chess moves he has left gets smaller. To the point where the tactical nukes he is positioning in Western Russia become the only way out.
Putin is in fatal terrain. He HAS to win, and do so in a way that appeases the internal and external influencers. He thought he could do this with some support, since internal Russian propaganda is that Ukraine is Neo Nazi (and they have A LOT of Neo Nazi’s. Including groups associated with Zelensky). I suspect he figured we (NATO and the west) would give less support than we are.
But remember, most of the Russian forces on the border aren’t moving yet. If tonight Putin decides that nice nice is over, then the lights will go out and the blood will flow.