[rbmillerjr]

NS2 is ready for operations and has not been approved yet, that is correct. However, if Russia invades, the Germans have stated unequivocally, that they will not use it.

It’s turning out to be great leverage against Russia.

The US/NATO/EU have all made concrete statements that they will not intervene militarily. That’s Russian propaganda that the West would send troops.

They will punish Russia, where it hurts, in their economy. Putin doesn’t give 2 vodka shots about dead Russians or Ukrainians.

[Mariner]

“They will punish Russia, where it hurts, in their economy.”

It’s apparent you fully support Joe Biden’s eastern European strategy.

[ScaniaBoy]

As you said the gas sale/dependency will cut both ways. If you have time to look at professor Mearsheimer's talk (link in my first post above), his opinion was that Russia considers this Ukraine affair to be of such importance that they will accept quite a lot of (economic) suffering not to give in. Question is if Germany (especially) and France will accept similar economic problems?

When it comes the Normandy format, I am sorry to say you are wrong. Read here (sorry, for a Gruniad link, but it was the first one I found).

So far, assuming that not all players play a bad game (like in 1914),I think the risk of a military conflict is very small. However, I see NATO risk being split, and the EU trying to take over much of the diplomatic power games on the European continent. In the long run I think this will be a disadvantage for the US and the UK, and it will create large problems for the smaller countries (EU or non-EU memebers, NATO or non-NATO menbers) on the European continent.