There is an even more compelling reason why Putin will not invade Ukraine: the Russian public would blame him for the ensuing stream of Russian boys returning home in caskets.
They changed the regulations in the Russian Army. The dead are buried in theater now. Besides, a good bit of their infantry force are ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. They’ll get buried at home — which is Ukraine.
Good points, I fear. I hope that Putin intends no more than to accrue the bloodless but real benefits of giving Ukraine, the US, and NATO a scare.