In my opinion he won’t because Joe Biden needs him to.
Putin is not likely to start war in the Ukraine, simply because this is pointless.
On the other hand, unless the current negotiations with the US lead nowhere, Putin must do something (or lose his credibility); it is just it does not have to be Ukraine at all, the options are many.
But if it is indeed going to be Ukraine-related, consider this option instead of invasion: Russian Parliament is considering a resolution to recognize governments of LNR and DNR. While the resolution technically was introduced by the opposition, the timing is interesting.
As for why Biden may want a war:
He needs to show that he can handle an orderly evacuation, so a war will give him a chance to improve on the Afghanistan mess. :P
(no, I’m not serious, but who knows what kinds of thoughts float in a demented brain....)
There is an even more compelling reason why Putin will not invade Ukraine: the Russian public would blame him for the ensuing stream of Russian boys returning home in caskets. Accustomed to bad government, the Russian public has a high tolerance for Putin’s corruption but could well draw the line a getting their sons killed.
If Putin wanted to invade Ukraine, why hasn’t he already done so, instead of allowing weapons and trainers to flood in for months? Because he wants a diplomatic solution. Our idiot prefers a war, with horrible consequences for Ukraine and possibly escalation to global nuclear war, because he’d take political heat for “selling out” Ukrainian independence and his financial cronies. Let’s NOT go Brandon.
The claim Russia is going to invade Ukraine has been nothing but propaganda from the start. Biden is determined to demonize Russia in order to distract the country from his long list of failures.
Putin is, first and foremost, a nationalist. He is presiding over a country with a crappy, but slowly improving economy. Its population is in decline, especially ethnic Russians. Putin is seeking to obtain concessions and benefits with maximum bluster and minimum cost. He won’t invade because it will cost too much in terms of treasure and limited manpower, especially when he can get pretty much everything he wants (including a bolstered image as a tough guy you don’t mess with) at very low cost. Putin is NOT stupid.
“We are supposed to believe that the modern Machievelli, Vladimir Putin, has had 100,000 Russian troops camped out in the snow for months on end, poised to invade Ukraine.”
During WW2 the fighting in winter between the Soviets and the Germans was mostly centered on the Ukrainian “Fronts”. The ground had to be solid enough to support tanks & trucks. When the snows got to deep on the northern & central fronts the Soviets would shift their mobile forces to the Ukraine.
Also, I don’t think the Russian soldier ‘gets a vote’ on a possible winter invasion any more than our guys got a vote about getting vaxxed.