Not so - see my post #50.
No. You are wrong.
There are two opportunities to block a bill in the Senate via a filibuster. The first opportunity comes when a motion is made to proceed to consider a piece of legislation — that is, to open up debate on the bill. Previously, votes on motions to proceed to debate voting rights legislation (both the John Lewis bill and the Manchin sponsored Freedom to Vote bill) failed to get 60 votes, stopping the bills in their tracks.
Schumer’s strategy gets around the need for 60 votes just to open debate.
But there has to be a second vote to close debate. And that will still require 60 votes.
When it fails to get 60 votes, Schumer will call for a vote on the nuclear option — a ruling that 60 votes are not needed to close debate on voting rights legislation. Presumably Manchin and Sinema will vote yea on the motion to close debate. But the question is whether, after that vote falls short of 60, will they support the nuclear option.