Posted on 12/29/2021 7:50:49 PM PST by BeauBo
“I always hoard them when I can get my hands on some, along with any prednisone that comes my way.”
ditto ...
Novavax is what you would probably consider an “actual vaccine”.
(Full disclosure - I consider Pfizer and Moderna to also be “actual vaccines”, but that’s not relevant to the rest of my response)
Novavax, like Pfizer and Moderna, rely on inducing circulating antibodies to components of the “spike protein” of SARS CoV 2, as the preferred immunizing strategy to prevent progression to severe disease.
The advantages of “natural immunity” include antibodies to the nucleoprotein and other components of the virus, which are not induced by any spike protein vaccine, INCLUDING Novavax. “Natural” immunity also includes mucosal IgA in the nose and throat, which is not induced by any existing vaccine including Novavax.
Personally, if I could get a protein-based multivalent vaccine that simulated the immune response to infection I would take it. Obviously, since the spike protein is the mechanism of attachment and mediates cell entry, some antibodies to it are better than nothing.
But we still do not understand what triggers the fatal cascade in natural infection (which is what you want to prevent), so immunizing strategies developed in the absence of that knowledge are all experiments in a certain sense.
“the over 146,000,000 Americans who have survived Covid and are therefore immune.”
No doubt natural immunity is a (the) strongest contributor to our (US) overall herd immunity.
Everything I have seen, leads me to believe that COVID infection imparts stronger immunity than the vaccines (more effective), but there are important caveats.
Natural immunity is not perfect. Some breakthroughs occur, and a bit more with Omicron. Less breakthroughs than with the vaccines.
Cross-immunity between Omicron and the other strains seems marginally less effective (but still pretty good), than it has been so far among the other strains.
Infection is not safe - serious side effects and deaths occur frequently. That has always been the main advantage of vaccination vs. natural infection, for any disease.
Natural immunity is not consistent across individuals. Vaccination isn’t either. Strongly symptomatic cases seem to impart stronger immunity than milder or asymptomatic cases, and individual responses vary. But all that being said, natural immunity seems to be the strongest.
The CDC estimate of 146 million Americans having been infected with COVID, only went through the end of September. Based on the reported number of cases in October and November, and their estimate that only about one out of four infections gets reported, about 20 million more would have been infected in those two months (bringing us to a total of about 55% of the US population).
In December, especially the second half, we are off to the races with cases. With Omicron, a much lower fraction of actual infections may be reported, because symptoms are much less severe (possibly a majority entirely asymptomatic). Also, as in London, it seems likely that testing capacity will be strained or maxed out (already seeing that locally in some places), so that the additional cases go unrecorded. That will likely look like new case numbers levelling off at a high rate, but test positivity rates might still rise.
We started December around 100K new cases reported per day, but by the 27th and 28th, well over 400K were being reported. That would imply nearly 2 million actual new daily infections - maybe more if there are a lot more asymptomatic. That seems likely to continue to increase into the first half of January, but who knows. Some mainstream modelers anticipate 3 million per day around peak.
So maybe 60% of the population by now with natural immunity, and surging over 70% within weeks (with some significant potential upside to that, based on assumptions of the rate of asymptomatic cases, and when the peak occurs).
“Why are people who have had a 3rd booster and mild symptoms such as sore throat going to the ER?
Some may be looking for a test to see if they have COVID (they are suddenly in high demand, with spot shortages), and some people go to the ER because it is their only source of medical treatment (uninsured, uninformed, unprepared). Some just don’t know what else to do.
Good post on McCullough.
Nailed it.
Agreed on the natural immunity numbers.
The only way Covid survives the winter at all is if the vaccines are creating major new problems.
“Is Novovax (sp?) an actual vaccine coming?”
It is already approved in several countries (EUA in India recently), but they have slipped their schedule to apply for Emergency Use Authorization in the USA a few times. European governments have already signed purchase orders for it.
Novavax is supposed to be applying in the USA any day now - the latest goal was by the end of the year. Once the application is in, it would typically be a matter of weeks, or a couple of months, to get approval. US approval is a (the) big credential for global sales, so they don’t want to mess that one up.
There is a lot of review and coordination ahead of time, so any not likely to be approved would just not apply. By the time the application is submitted, all the loose ends have been tied up, with a bow on it...
I am usually cranky about things. But this is very different. We need to have a dialogue on this real health problem without the politics.
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