[fireman15]

But I specifically noted 51% left too much room for delta to maneuver. It's when you get north of 90% that the death count becomes inescapable.

You are engaging in a logical fallacy that completely invalidates any reasoning that you may have tried to apply. Suppose a population is infected with two pathogens... one infecting 90% of the population and one infecting 10%... you cannot make the assumption that 90% of the deaths are from the pathogen that is infecting more of the population. 90% of the total deaths could easily be from the pathogen with the lower infection rate.

[Owen]

“90% of the total deaths could easily be from the pathogen with the lower infection rate.”

This is not true.

It could be. Not easily.

Probabilities are clear. If 90+% (note the +) are from one pathogen then most deaths likely are, too. Why would you fight the odds?