I see what you are saying, but I just don’t see that it is worth it.
To risk everything over some tiny piece of land? to risk having entire world turn on them if not militarily then cutting off trade with them? not to mention the loss of life from a war. It just seems like so much to risk for so little.
I agree with you in that the risk/reward calculation is not in China’s favor should they invade Taiwan. And that’s why I don’t think it will happen. They will just bluster and threaten. Such tactics can pay dividends.
But I can understand the humiliation aspect of the whole thing. As I noted earlier, the mere existence of Nationalist Taiwan is humiliating to the ChiCom leadership. I’m no expert, but I guessing that the average mainland Chinese doesn’t feel that way. He’s got more important things to worry about.
Tiwain isn’t just a ‘tiny piece of land’ when you understand the demographics of it’s location in that region. It’s like a giant road block off their coast for China. A good comparison is The Cuban Missile Crisis. Not many realize how extremely close we came to nuclear war at that time.....over “a tiny piece of land’.