Nitrogen fertilizer shortage expected to drive down yields worldwide

Western Producer ^ | 12/2/21

[BusterDog]

A shortage of nitrogen fertilizer will likely result in reduced world production of crops like wheat and corn, says an industry executive.

“We do think yield on a global basis is going to be off next year, not because of demand destruction but just because there’s not going to be enough tons available,” said CF Industries president Tony Will.

He told investment analysts listening to the company’s third quarter 2021 earnings results conference call that farmers in countries like India and other places that rely on government subsidies won’t be able to compete for limited supplies of products like urea.

Isaure Perrot, agriculture consultant with Agritel, had a similar message at a recent webinar.

She expects wheat production costs in France to increase by 21 percent to US$241 per tonne in 2022 due to sky-high nitrogen fertilizer prices.

[coloradan]

I hear there’s several thousand tons of nitrogen fertilizer in Lebanon. Oh wait, nevermind.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Arkansas Tider :" No problems with potash or phosphate mining in the US, it’s the nitrogen.
Nitrogen production requires natural gas,.. "

True that anhydrous nitrogen has increased 3X
And yes we have our own nations production of Potash and phosphorus to rely on.
However, these two fertilizers have also increased 30% and 38%, respectively.
The best time to stock up is winter, or before planting season,
otherwise you are competing with other farmers for a limited supply.

[redlegplanner]

So does RoK. The 1SG used to delight in Monday morning runs thru the feces filled rice paddies, just to watch the hungover troopers fall out puking.

ahhhh...the good old days...

[hinckley buzzard]

One of the quiet consequences of the drive to outlaw fossil fuels, natural gas specifically. Famine as well as freezing in the dark

[Mr. Lucky]

Oh, boo, hoo, hoo.

My corn ground generated about $1,300 per acre this year. At 300# of anhydrous per acre, a $100 per ton increase in nitrogen fertilizer costs will set me back $15 per acre.

Will I like it? No.

Will I stop farming? Also, no.

Maybe I'll add a biologic to the starter fertilizer; maybe I'll add a legume to the cover crop seeding; maybe I'll pasture the corn stubble. Are farmers so dependent upon the public teat that they've all forgotten how to improvise?

[NWFree]

Ragheads must be stockpiling again 🤪

[Rebelbase]

Iowa corn farmers can say goodbye to 200+/acre bushel yields.

[Rebelbase]

2024 cornflakes will be $10/box.

[Rebelbase]

Coming to America?

Citizens Fight Over Feces to Fill Human Fertilizer Quota in North Korea

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/nk-manure-quota-2020-10142019154836.html

[JD_UTDallas]

Take it easy Francis. Breath in and out stop hyperventilating and let go of the pearls.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2008/february/corn-prices-near-record-high-but-what-about-food-costs/

For example, an 18-ounce box of corn flakes contains about 12.9 ounces of milled field corn. When field corn is priced at $2.28 per bushel (the 20-year average), the actual value of corn represented in the box of corn flakes is about 3.3 cents (1 bushel = 56 pounds). (The remainder is packaging, processing, advertising, transportation, and other costs.) At $3.40 per bushel, the average price in 2007, the value is about 4.9 cents. The 49-percent increase in corn prices would be expected to raise the price of a box of corn flakes by about 1.6 cents, or 0.5 percent, assuming no other cost increases.

https://agfax.com/2021/09/16/corn-soybeans-wasde-2021-price-projections-a-historical-perspective/

The highest projection has been a shockingly high $18 a bushel for yellow dent number one that’s $18/56lb bushel/16 is lb = 0.0200892857 cents per ounce there are 12 ounces in a box of corn flakes that’s 24 cents per box in corn cost serious let go of the pearls have a beer and carry on.

[P.O.E.]

Need more DAYtrogen

[P.O.E.]

Need more DAYtrogen

[LadyDoc]

Fertilizer here in the Philippines is up 40 percent, Gasoline and diesel prices are also up meaning higher prices for irrigation pumps and farm equipment.

So rice prices will go up. But unemployment is high too so people will go hungry.

[PrairieLady2]

My grandson in law put down fertilizer for corn fields. The costs of big farming is scarey expensive! He’s only got a small chunk, about 20 acres and he expects to spend over $350K in prepping the fields, planting, maintaining and harvesting. And it’s all a crap shoot! Any number of things could break him and there are weird issues even with crop insurance.

At least he got his fields prepared. Pray for the rest.

[5th MEB]

The answer is CHINA grabbed them all.

[sport]

As does /did Japan.