“I doubt it. My early speculation was the jury would intiailly split 10 / 2, with 10 for acquittal.”
But will the two be able to persuade the others? All they need is reasonable double to acquit. I worry it is the other way, if there is reasonable doubt, convict.
I see no way to a guilty verdict. That isn’t going to happen on this evidence. This isn’t the tribal OJ jury.