“Loudoun should tip the balance. Youngkin will do better in NoVA than any Rep since 2009.”
I’m hoping/thinking Youngkin will see a vote increase in the Valley, Southside and southwestern Virginia. A statewide Republican usually does well in those areas but any increase in positive GOP turnout would be a blessing.
He’ll also very likely win in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake.. both generally GOP areas that went for Biden in 2020.
The NOVA area accounts for a third or more of the total statewide vote. That said, a strong performance by Youngkin in the rural counties can offset partially McAwful’s edge in NoVA.