“Manchin isn’t an idiot. He knows that if he switches to the Republicans he gets primaried out in 2024. If he stays with the Democrats he has a chance of reelection. A dwindling chance but still a chance.”
I think the time for Manchin to flip would be after the 2022 election when he is safe for 6 years. Flipping now, he gains very little. If after the election the senate is still evenly divided he is in a position to bargain with the Republican-leaders. Depending what they offer him, he might flip then.
Manchin is up for reelection in 2024.
Manchin comes up again in 2024 for reelection.