Posted on 09/08/2021 9:39:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There was an absolute shocker in today's JOLTs report.
While consensus was expecting the BLS to report a print of 10MM in July job openings, nobody - not even the most optimistic whispers - was prepared for the shocking 10.934 million job openings that hit the tape at 10am ET sharp. This unprecedented number of job openings was made possible as more than 4.2 million openings were added in the past 7 months, with every single month of 2021 seeing an increase in job openings, the longest such stretch in history.
Looking at the details, the increase in job openings was driven by a number of industries, with the largest increases in health care and social assistance (+294,000); finance and insurance (+116,000); and accommodation and food services (+115,000).
The record number of job openings stands out in stark contrast against the countless Americans who are still collecting various pandemic emergency unemployment claims, which in the latest week was just above 12 million.
But the biggest shocker is that while we were expecting the BLS to report that there were some 1.7MM more job openings than unemployed workers, a testament to just how broken, supply constrained and/or overheating the US job market is, the actual number meant that there were a record 2.232 million more job openings (10.934MM) compared to the total number of unemployed people which as of August was 8.384 million.
Obviously, with (way) more job openings than unemployed workers, this meant that in June there were again far less than 1 unemployed workers (0.7959 to be exact) for every job opening, down from 0.94 in June, and from a record 4.6 at the peak crisis moment last April.
Unlike last month when hiring hit a near record 6.8 million, in August some of the job openings came at the expense of a slowdown in hiring: in August the BLS reported that hiring dropped by a modest 160K to 6.667 million, as hires decreased in retail trade (-277,000), durable goods manufacturing (-41,000), and educational services (-23,000) while the number of hires increased in state and local government education (+33,000) and in federal government (+21,000).
Finally, and in a sign that the overheating in the labor market appears is nowhere close to ending, in July the level of quits - or people leaving their job voluntarily due to better prospects elsewhere - posted rose again, up by 103K and hitting the second highest on record at 3.977 million, just below the all time high of 3.992 million in April. The number of quits increased in wholesale trade (+34,000) and in state and local government education (+14,000). Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-25,000) and in federal government (-5,000).
While the latest JOLTS data validates skepticism about "transitory" inflation, as the insufficient pool of labor is obviously inflationary if it continues and will lead to mare wage hikes, there is one caveat: with all emergency unemployment benefits officially expiring this week, it is likely that many of those job openings will be filled as millions of people currently receiving government welfare have to rejoin the labor force leading to a sharp drop in job openings, assuming of course that the mu covid vadiant (now that the receding delta variant is no longer scary enough) won't shut down the economy again in the coming weeks.
“Back in the days that we were great, employers offered On The Job Training.”
Many companies suck at labor utilization. They’re used to a Baby Boomer economy, with an almost unlimited supply of labor.
Over the next 2 decades, companies that act like “cry babies” about their dwindling labor supply, will be supplanted by commercial operations that don’t have these “hang ups.”
Yes indeed. It’s very sad.
Learning and mastering a blue collar trade is also an option.
There are many blue collar skills that will always be in demand, and can turn into small businesses that do very well.
Really. There’s a lot of luck involved. I have no college degree but retired at almost $100K/year. My first job was $.75/hour as a waitress.
In high school I was in Advanced Placement in the NY Regents program, and took all the appropriate required courses in Math, Science, Latin, etc. But the class that got me in the door at companies where it counted was Personal Typing. That gave opportunities to advance.
Once you have a high skill, it can take you places. College definitely doesn’t have to be a part of it, but “they” say (whoever “they” is) that college does give a leg up generally. I don’t even know if that’s true any more with the dumbing-down going on.
Many “job openings” are fake jobs that employers have no intention of filling. Especially jobs in engineering fall in that category since Biden destroyed the energy industry.
Perfectly true of course. The problem is that there are a lot of missing rungs on that ladder. They were "offshored".
I worked at a fast food joint for minimum wage - as a teenager. There aren't a lot of good reasons for a 35 year-old man to still be working the counter at that fast food restaurant.
Where did the progression of better jobs go? When I came of age, anyone with a pulse could get a job, and with a decent work ethic, a much better job very quickly. That does not seem to be the case today.
I do know some young people making very good incomes in skilled trades (electrician, welder, barber). Those occupations are not for everybody of course. But "more education" is not an answer.
Our education system misdirects people into white-collar jobs that keep getting downsized and eliminated. Our welfare systems reward bad behavior and punish good behavior. Is it any wonder that is what we get?
I have seen this first hand when I worked in large corporations. At least 50% of posted jobs were never filled. I am sure that has not changed.
Most arguments for college are caused by a basis statistical fallacy—correlation does not demonstrate causation.
Someone from a wealthy family is more likely to be wealthy than their poor neighbor—they are also more likely to have gone to college—proves nothing about the value of a college education.
What college is good for is networking—it is obviously easier to get hired by people (or families) you know than people you don’t.
However, blue collar trades are excellent for building up a network of satisfied customers...and that could lead in a lot of different directions.
“that would be the female dogs that run every HR department in the nation ...”
Ain’t that the truth. I worked in HR for several years, and the women running the show were dreadful. Curiously, most had Psychology degrees. It seemed they had a propensity toward sadism, and truly enjoyed messing with people’s lives.
I learned to not call the SEIU union reps “organized crime” (at least not out loud).
It was rough. I was the turd in the punchbowl, for sure. When they started spewing their PC crap my eye rolling scored me no points.
The thing that bothered me most was the facade that HR exists to help the employees, and employees believed it. HR exists to cover the ass of management. Period.
Soon you’ll have a pick of millions that got fired for not taking the “vaccine” instead.
The awful thing is that the ByeDone administration is calling this job creation, and their demoscat media sycophants are pushing that.
It has not changed, only grown worse. The Bechtels and Fluors are even more guilty of this practice today.
It has not changed, only grown worse. The Bechtels and Fluors are even more guilty of this practice today.They are losing out on good people.
After a couple early appointments this morning, we swung in to Hardee’s for breakfast. Door was locked. The sign said they are “closed until further notice due to staffing issues”.
any idea if it was a corporate owned store or a franchise? Seems like a franchisee would be there himself cooking and serving to make a buck
Don’t know the details of this Hardee’s. There wasn’t a soul in sight.
“It’s producing plenty of talented STEM graduates (if it weren’t, why are so many foreign students clamoring to study STEM in this country?).
...
Regardless, there’s no reason why we need to import labor.”
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1) That’s a valid point however there are other reasons why so many foreign students are clamoring to study in this country. Many of them want to be fluent in English, they want to enjoy the American lifestyle, they want to make valuable professional contacts, and some simply want to immigrate here.
2) All things being equal (i.e., assume that U.S. and foreign grads have similar knowledge) many employers would still prefer to import labor for two reasons: (1) lower wage demands and (2) a often a better work ethic.
Not saying I agree with that, just that I can see why employers may tend to favor foreign labor over our home grown supply. The American work ethic ain’t what it used to be.
Back in the days that we were great...
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A very long time ago. We live in a different country now that bears no resemblance of the America we once knew.
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