Posted on 09/08/2021 9:39:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There was an absolute shocker in today's JOLTs report.
While consensus was expecting the BLS to report a print of 10MM in July job openings, nobody - not even the most optimistic whispers - was prepared for the shocking 10.934 million job openings that hit the tape at 10am ET sharp. This unprecedented number of job openings was made possible as more than 4.2 million openings were added in the past 7 months, with every single month of 2021 seeing an increase in job openings, the longest such stretch in history.
Looking at the details, the increase in job openings was driven by a number of industries, with the largest increases in health care and social assistance (+294,000); finance and insurance (+116,000); and accommodation and food services (+115,000).
The record number of job openings stands out in stark contrast against the countless Americans who are still collecting various pandemic emergency unemployment claims, which in the latest week was just above 12 million.
But the biggest shocker is that while we were expecting the BLS to report that there were some 1.7MM more job openings than unemployed workers, a testament to just how broken, supply constrained and/or overheating the US job market is, the actual number meant that there were a record 2.232 million more job openings (10.934MM) compared to the total number of unemployed people which as of August was 8.384 million.
Obviously, with (way) more job openings than unemployed workers, this meant that in June there were again far less than 1 unemployed workers (0.7959 to be exact) for every job opening, down from 0.94 in June, and from a record 4.6 at the peak crisis moment last April.
Unlike last month when hiring hit a near record 6.8 million, in August some of the job openings came at the expense of a slowdown in hiring: in August the BLS reported that hiring dropped by a modest 160K to 6.667 million, as hires decreased in retail trade (-277,000), durable goods manufacturing (-41,000), and educational services (-23,000) while the number of hires increased in state and local government education (+33,000) and in federal government (+21,000).
Finally, and in a sign that the overheating in the labor market appears is nowhere close to ending, in July the level of quits - or people leaving their job voluntarily due to better prospects elsewhere - posted rose again, up by 103K and hitting the second highest on record at 3.977 million, just below the all time high of 3.992 million in April. The number of quits increased in wholesale trade (+34,000) and in state and local government education (+14,000). Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-25,000) and in federal government (-5,000).
While the latest JOLTS data validates skepticism about "transitory" inflation, as the insufficient pool of labor is obviously inflationary if it continues and will lead to mare wage hikes, there is one caveat: with all emergency unemployment benefits officially expiring this week, it is likely that many of those job openings will be filled as millions of people currently receiving government welfare have to rejoin the labor force leading to a sharp drop in job openings, assuming of course that the mu covid vadiant (now that the receding delta variant is no longer scary enough) won't shut down the economy again in the coming weeks.
I talked to a couple store managers over the past week who were lamenting the labor shortage. I asked them about the job they were offering. They were $11-12/hr. Variable number of hours from 0-20/wk. must be available any time and any day. No benefits.
The expectation is that adults need to work teenager jobs when China/COVID/downsizing eliminates their adult jobs. This is what our “free market” now stands for.
It’s producing plenty of talented STEM graduates (if it weren’t, why are so many foreign students clamoring to study STEM in this country?).
Agree with you about the non-STEM component of our ‘education’ system.
Regardless, there’s no reason why we need to import labor. Let’s focus on fixing the wrongs of academia first.
I’m willing to bet those positions require people to wear a Fauci face mask 100% of the time...do they not expect that to be a turn-off to many people?
Actually I think we need a Visa work system. Especially for places where much of the work is seasonal.
For example, in August I visited The Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, NH. The hotel owns the whole town pretty much.
There are not that many people that live in the surrounding area. They actually have a dormitory for the young kids to stay in. There are rooms in the basement of the hotel that the workers live in. They only were about 50% staffed in August. They said because the kids that come in on the visa program could not come this year due to covid. They did not have all of their restaurants open because of staffing issues. The hotel was completely full. They also have a B&B and a motel across the road.
The foliage season is their busiest time of the year. This is coming up at the end of this month. There is no way they will be able to handle the demand.
Then in the winter they also operate the ski area across the road. Again, they will be understaffed. They need even more people to run the ski area.
Back in the days that we were great, employers offered On The Job Training.
The ones around here want 5 years experience for crap starting wages in most of the trades.
I know plenty of people who want to work, in my observation this is 100 percent on the idiot employers. Every place wants skilled tradesmen for minimum wage and let’s have a blood sample, and a piss sample too, please (note, I can pee clean, no problem but if someone thinks they can ask me for a test they can F-O, or at least add a ‘1’ to the front or a ‘0’ after my hourly wage, or go the hell out of business).
I’m not buying it.
Which in turn begs the question why would ANYONE displaying your level of contempt and ignorance want to work for you?
Here in California, it *used* to be that the Mexicans would come over the border during harvest, do their work, then go back to home and family for half the year. Worked for everyone. We need something like that again. They were happier (and helped their local economy) being with their families back there!
Wearing a mask all day will cause long term health issues. Then there are the vaccine mandates and mandatory testing and quarantines and on and on.
Are we really surprised there is a labor shortage under these conditions?
Why are all the hospitals short of help? When did doctors and nurses become people to lazy to work? Or is there another reason for the staff shortages?
Or a mandatory jab. Both of these are a real turnoff.
Many of them are also people who for example have been working in the restuarant industry for the past 17 years and they understand that they are simply reclaiming their own money that they have been paying into the system for years. They understand that some people were very fortunate to not have our communist infested government wreck their careers and that those lucky enough to not have been hit by closure mandates are not the only people who have ever worked hard in their lives.
Once again we have a LOT of people here on FR that are on some very high horses.
When I was young (a long time ago :-) ), I was laid off in the spring time and I had a decent nest egg...
I figured I had paid a fortune in taxes in my life already and it was time for .gov to give something back...so I milked unemployment and hung out at the beach for the summer.
I got a decent job in the fall and life moved on...
I always considered that a totally rational decision—I had a great summer!
After a couple early appointments this morning, we swung in to Hardee’s for breakfast. Door was locked. The sign said they are “closed until further notice due to staffing issues”.
The large companies doing the "mandates" at the behest of Government do not care in the slightest way about employee turnover. They will crash and burn before they back off from this. And in the case of airlines, that could be quite literally the case.
Having an obedient work force is all that matters to them.
By design.
Many people have found other ways to earn a living. There has never been an easier time to be self employed. There are literally dozens of websites like Fiverr.com that make it very easy to freelance your work.
Why face vaccine mandates, mask wearing mandates, permanent understaffing workloads, etc. when you can work for yourself and set your own rules?
I hate to break it to the people riding high horses here. The people who had their careers and lives wrecked by our communist infested government are not dumb or lazy. Many of them have already found another way and those help wanted signs are going to be there for a long time to come.
So if you are one of those who say they won't hire someone who hasn't been working for the last year and a half you might want to rethink your position because you can't fill a job that nobody wants or NEEDS. Turn these people away and don't be surprised when the company you work for closes for good.
And I would agree.
When you force people to pay into an insurance system that is supposed to pay benefits for loss of a job outside your control you MUST let them collect on that claim.
There is a simple solution to this problem of not working and collecting unemployment and that is to pay the benefit in one lump sum just like any other insurance claim. Calculate how many weeks the person is entitled to and cut them a check. They are then free to take another job immediately which I maintain most would do.
I have been knocked off my high horse several times.
And I can do math. A $15 per hour job in retail is not enough to live around here on unless you live in your parent's basement. Might as well ride the unemployment pony as far as it will go. The money is considerably better.
And when that pony drops dead, the next best thing is to find some gig that pays under the table, so taxes don't bite you.
Yes, that stinks for a work ethic. The long-term prospects are poor. Maybe "Free Trade" was not such a great deal and we should not have exported all those jobs to China.
He's been
Too long in the wasteland
Too long in the wasteland
's what made him that way.
(James McMurtry, Too Long in the Wasteland, 1989)
“A $15 per hour job in retail is not enough to live around here on “
It’s not supposed to provide a living wage; it’s just one more rung on the way up the ladder.
People have choices on how to manage their lives and their futures. Want a better life? Get a better job. Want to get a better job? Get some kind of higher education.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.