Why that poll showing 54% of California Hispanics want Gavin Newsom recalled may mean a big surprise for Dems

The mainstream media has been promoting the truism that California's embattled Gov. Gavin Newsom will win his voter recall referendum. It's in the bag.

The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has been saying since at least 2008 that it has the Hispanic vote locked up. Another "certainty."

Here comes a poll, though,reported by the Daily Caller, showing that both are deluding themselves:

More than half of Hispanics in California say they would vote to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to an Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll published Tuesday.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, showed Californians are split on the issue with 46% in favor of recalling Newsom and 48% are against it. Among Hispanics, 54% said they would vote to recall.

Which is a startling counter-indicator, given that not only is it unfavorable to Newsom, it's also not consistent with the views of other demographic groups, such as blacks, who support Newsom; Asians, who support Newsom; and whites, who are almost evenly divided about him.

Here's the big kicker: Hispanics form 39% of the population, and 35% of the voter base, making them California's biggest and most important constituency.

The bad news gets worse, according to reporting from the California Globe:

The Globe spoke with Mark Meuser and compared notes on the latest poll and the data.
"First, looking at the data, we see that the hispanic community is 54.4% planning on voting for the recall," Meuser said. The state of California has approximately 35% registered Hispanic voters. But this poll only made up of 24.2% hispanic voters, Meuser noted. "It appears that this Emerson poll has under sampled hispanic voters." This is also posted on his Senate campaign Facebook page.

I believe this - there is a myth out there that Hispanics are pro - illegal immigration and in general are lefty.

I work with so many that are not - are Trump supporters and are 100% against mass illegal immigration. They want the exact same things we want - safe neighborhoods, good schools, low taxes, ability to buy a home, inflation at low levels. It seems the longer they’re here, the more conservative they become.

Why the U.S. government has to keep a pipeline open to import massive amounts of Democrat voters.

Unless there’s massive voter fraud (which is, of course, possible), I truly believe that CA voters will boot Newsom in 5 weeks. No one loves him while folks who hate him are highly motivated. It’s a binary choice where his opponent is himself. Thumbs up or down on him. Hard to see him winning that battle.

His ad campaign recognizes his weakness and makes little to no effort to tout hie virtues. All he can do is try to paint the recall as a Trumpian effort to subvert democracy. Which is asinine, but it’s all he’s got.

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