See 38 and 45.
Let’s examine some things:
1) There was an initial infection mostly in the US Northeast about April of last year. Death count rose, peaked and declined until early July. So, we ask why did it decline.
2) A popular answer is viruses have been around forever, they arrive, they do damage, and natural response by people defeats it.
3)Another popular answer is 6 foot separation, staying off airplanes and buses, and maybe even masks created the decline. I won’t say lockdowns so we don’t lose focus.
4) There is a problem with 2) above. Odds look high there is nothing natural about the virus. It was lab created. So there’s no reason to presume natural defense would work against an unnatural virus.
5) So the decline occurred because of mitigation measures? Let’s go with maybe on that. Let’s also note the decline from the peak in December was before any significant number of vaccines were out. The decline was well established and under way both in May of last year, and early January of this year.
6) Bottom line, this winter will tell the tale.