Posted on 04/15/2021 7:52:26 AM PDT by tlozo
In recent weeks, the Kremlin executed the largest military build-up on the Russian-Ukrainian border since 2014. Units not just from Russia’s local Western Military District but also from the Central and Southern Military Districts gathered en masse at two points: Russia’s border territory along Ukraine’s contested Donbass region, and Crimea.
As tensions escalate over the ongoing Donbass conflict, defense analysts continue to debate whether or not Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine. But how might such an invasion look, and what would follow it? According to one suggested scenario, the Kremlin could set the stage for a possible conflict by extending formal recognition to the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LNR). Under the pretext of defending these pro-Russian separatists—some 640,000 of whom have, by now, been granted Russian citizenship—from Ukrainian aggression, the forces amassed at Russia’s borders would begin moving westward and will quickly absorb the territories currently controlled by Russian-backed LNR and DNR forces. Ukraine’s Armed Forces are in no position to deny, or even to impose meaningful costs on a quick and relatively painless Russian annexation of the contested Donbass region. The prospects for a vigorous guerilla resistance effort in the Donbass are likewise slim; the available data suggests that pro-Kiev sentiment in Luhansk and Donetsk was relatively small in 2014, and has further dwindled since.
The absorption of DNR and LNR would bring Russian forces close to the line of separation between Ukraine and the contested part of Donbass. The Kremlin may very well opt to stop here, leveraging its rapid battlefield gains to pressure Kiev and the west into accepting some type of de-jure independence, de-facto Russian protectorate status for DNR and LNR, broadly resembling Abkhazia in the aftermath of the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. Assuming that the west does not intervene on a military level, the only challenge facing Russia would be an administrative one. Salvaging the war-torn infrastructure of Donbass, as well as paying pensions and providing healthcare to the people of LNR and DNR, will impose massive costs on the Kremlin’s already-strained coffers.
But, depending on the circumstances leading up to this point, Moscow may choose to continue further into Ukraine. Though it remains exceedingly unlikely that Russia will try to occupy Kiev, experts have cautioned of a Russian westward offensive centered around capturing much if not all of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. This operation would presumably start at Mariupol and continue through Berdyansk; depending on the scale of Russian ambitions, the offensive could run all the way through the major Ukrainian port city of Odessa. Such a conflict would be entirely different from a quick-and-easy Russian annexation of Donbass. Despite being vastly outmatched and outnumbered in every relevant military category, Ukraine’s Armed Forces will likely marshall all their strength to bitterly resist Russia’s offensive. Even with its overwhelming military advantage, it will not be logistically simple for Russia to quickly establish full, uncontested control over such a long stretch of the coastal territory. Further still, Odessa is not Donetsk. Russia’s occupying forces cannot expect that they will be greeted as liberators in Ukraine’s southern coastal cities, and must prepare for the possibility of insurgencies followed by mass civilian casualties.
Though it is clear that Kiev cannot single-handedly win in any scenario involving a full-fledged Russian invasion, it can possibly prevent Russia from achieving a blitzkrieg-style outcome through persistent military and civilian resistance. This could buy the United States and EU enough time to formulate a coherent policy response, up to and including military intervention.
https://nypost.com/2021/04/15/russian-military-vehicles-descend-on-ukraine-border/
Putin’s objective in Southern Ukraine is Kherson and the North Crimean canal. It’s not Odessa.
Probably, but Kherson Oblast is a very Ukrainian speaking area. Residents will not welcome the Russians.
As of Ukrainian National Census (2001), the ethnic groups living within Kherson were: Ukrainians – 76.6% Russians – 20.0% Other – 3.4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson
Putin is preparing to take Kherson by force given the buildup in Crimea. I don’t think he expects to be welcomed by the Ukrainians there. But the Ukrainian military will not put up much of a fight. And the civilians will not mount any real resistance.
Russia and China are very patient. They wait until the U.S. has very weak leaders (compliant?) to continue their conquests. The question is will the U.S. ever again have strong leadership to stand up against them?
The river dnieper would make a good border for russian federation. Gives them full land access to crimea. The bright boys who thought we could gain nato naval base in crimea turned out to be delusional fools. You solve problem of unhappy ukrainians by exchanging them for russian speakers west of dnieper.
The annexation of these oblasts would have already happened if Hillary had won. Trump was truly a disrupter for the globalists.
The four Oblasts(States) on the eastern side of the river Dnieper are very Ukrainian.
Chernihiv Oblast - Ukrainians - (93.5%)
Poltava Oblast - Ukrainians - (91.4%)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Ukrainians - (79.3%)
Kherson Oblast - Ukrainians -(82.0%)
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Ukrainian_Census_(2001)
This isn’t about Ukrainians vs Russians. It’s about water. It’s about the Northern Crimean Canal which starts at Nova Kakhovka. Expect the Russians to take Nova Kakhovka. And for them to blow up the Canal dam at the Ukraine-Crimea border to start the water to Crimea flowing again before the reservoirs are completely dry this summer.
Russia won’t go in unless the Ukrainians attack Donetsk & Lugansk, which they have been building up forces to do.
Time is on Russia’s side. It’s the Blinken/Nuland gang trying to get Ukraine to fight Russia.
Of course its Ukrainian vs Russian. You can't ignore that one side shooting is Russian and the other side shooting is Ukrainian.They have had mortar, artillery and sniper fire since 2014, way before water for Crimea was an issue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War
One other thing could happen: the Russian invasion of Ukraine would show that US military guarantees mean little in Eastern Europe. This could create a chain-of-events that would end with the dissolution of NATO.
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