Please consider #25.
One area where I depart from your article is that certain elements may do what you claim in the article, and may even have some success, but would result in the birth of a real monster where up until this point has been a fabrication--otherwise known as a self fulfilling prophesy. Think "IRA" or other examples.
At that point, the ground on which the aggravating powers stands becomes unstable. Unlike Afghanistan, where bases can be supplied from outside the country, suddenly supply chains and logistics are at risk, and you end up with enclaves that are set in a landmass swarming with potential threats.