Larry Schweikart
LS Twitter thread
1) Just finished a discussion with a pro-Trump congressional source on procedures. Very high.
2) On Jan. 6, all that is needed is 1 senator (Hawley) and 1 Congressman (Brooks) to bring an objection to an elector slate (almost certainly AZ, since that will be the first contested.
3) The rules are made by the previous congress; the laws already in place bind the procedures.
4) Pence has no authority on his own to accept or reject any slate. According to source, he will turn to the Parliamentarian for a ruling on how to proceed.
5) This isn't speculation. This is how it was done LAST TIME there was an objection.
In 2016. By Sheila Jackson Lee against Trump electors.
6) The parliamentarian informed veep Joe Biteme (!) that because there was no senator, the objection could not be heard.
7) With a senator and Congressman objecting, the Parliamentarian then will read the rule, wherein the Senate and House retire to separate chambers to debate the objection.
8) Note: Pence has not done anything except entertain the objection. That's all he is allowed to do.
9) According to the source, the Trump goal was to get the fraud debated in session.
10) However, the House will not debate. It will toss the objection in 30 seconds.
11) The Senate "may" take up to 2 hours to debate.
12) In the end, the certified slates will be accepted.
13) Source thinks very few would vote to throw out a certified slate. Even people the source knows personally, including Mike Lee & Ted Cruz, would be unlikely to vote to toss a certified slate.
14) Certainly there won't be 51.
15) Remember, we very well may NOT have the to GA seats filled, so the final numbers might be 49 Ds (Kelly seated now, Hickenlooper on Jan. 3 ) & only 49 Rs with recounts holding up the 2 GA seats.
16) Pence will NOT be in the senate chamber to break a tie because he cannot --- he presides over the joint session.
17) But my guess is that this final senate vote on AZ will be 92 or 93- about 5. Maybe Blackburn, Cotton, Paul, Cruz, vote against the certified electors.
Doesn't matter: Ds only need 2 Rs. They'll get 30+.
18) But say the senate miraculously comes up with 51 votes to toss the AZ certified slate.
The House has already voted to accept it. Tie goes to the runner. The House & Senate have to be in agreement to reject a certified slate.
19) Some of you are saying, "But I read that the House votes by DELEGATION, not by member."
Not for this.
The delegation vote is employed if no one has 270 electoral votes. For the votes on objections, it's by simple majority.
20) BTW, I asked source about who the Parliamentarian was---House or Senate. "Doesn't matter. They are rule nerds. Extremely impartial."
Sheila Jackson Lee's anti Trump objection went nowhere in 2016.
21) My guess (didn't confirm) is that these debates will be CLOSED.
22) So don't count on the "media" seeing the fraud or having the uninformed American public see this either. My source said the best that could come was Yertle's election reform commission. . .to which I laughed.
He said "it's easy to get cynical. I have to find a way to keep trying, to not fall into hopelessness."
23) So, after the AZ vote comes back for the certified electors, I asked about the plan cooked up by Yertle & Botoxic to deny further objections.
Source didn't think that would fly because the rules were written.
24) Again I laughed, and it was admitted that whoever has the votes can do whatever they want, but STRONGLY thought any pre-emptive attempt to stop objections (as is being discussed today) would go nowhere.
25) This dynamic might change (my opinion, not source's) if GA is decertified and if at least one other state is decertified before 1/6. If Biteme is one de-cert away from not having 270, there is a shot, but it's a very, very long shot.
My sense is that GA is the easiest.