Qualified and able to win are two different things, and things matter.
John Thune’s 2016 run was at the expense of the SD State Constitution which only allows two terms as a Senator. At the time he was probably number three in the Senate or close to it.
A good friend of mine who served nineteen years in the SD Legislature has heard from a good friend of John’s regarding Thune’s vehement dislike for our President. He believes John has poisoned his chances for re-election. I am not so sure, but John is now a pox a far as conservatives are concerned.
In some ways we are a three party State, with the Missouri river separating us to a degree. The Eastern half holds most of the RINO’s and can and usually does outnumber the Conservative Republicans. That fact usually allows them to outvote the Conservatives and push or elevate bad candidates, as in everyone of our delegation. East River also has the majority of Democrats, but that party is ever shrinking, until we give them an excuse like John Thune, to rise up.
The rub comes, when there is a candidate that needs a boost in the polls to reach a win. That is usually a result of the conservative voting block West of the River. That boost made John Thune a Senator, and Kristi Noem a Governor.
John Thune has endorsed Joe Biden, that was the straw that did it. He will have an opponent if he runs, but it will be someone who has a chance small as it might be.
Of interest is the Native American voting block in the Pine Ridge and Rosebud Reservations South and West of the River. They are up to their necks in illegal voting particularly the buying of votes through food and direct payments. It is known and obviously frowned upon but gets ignored just as all the rest of the cheating that our President has discovered going on for decades. The REZ votes reliably Democrat, and has the same ability to swing elections as the West River Conservative Republicans do.
Any statewide election can be won or lost West of the river.
There is a lot of good and useful information in your post.
Most people outside that region are unlikely to understand the breakdown, the ‘three party’ effect to it all.
I see there is an Inconvenient Truth of voter fraud via Native American reservations. I’ll bet nobody wants to talk about it at all. That means both major parties have work to do.
Fellow South Dakotan here.....Your post was dead on. Another problem is the SD GOP. I can’t imagine the pressure (from the national GOP) that they would get by having someone primary Thune. I would love to see it happen but doubt that it will. I called Thune’s office on Tuesday and spoke to one of his staffers, and then commented at the end that I would never vote for Thune again. And today I basically said the same thing in an email after I said my piece about the monstrosity of a stimulus bill that he voted in favor of. He is McConnell’s boy. Bought and paid for.