Good analysis. And you’re correct that individual/small group revolt will not happen if Harris invokes the US military.
The only possibility is a large set of states seceding, from Texas north to Montana, diagonally to West Virginia, and maybe Florida - that’s about all that will have the cajones. The USA, where I unfortunately now live, will wage a brutal war on these Red states eventually. The skirmishes with the counties that want to leave the USA will be catastrophic.
I think many (most?) these days really have no notion that this country isn't "guaranteed" to stay together as 50 "united" states.