27November2020...Vote Trajectory Theory
I’ve been reviewing some of the literature and science of ‘shapes’ including triangles to dodecahedrons - which is way over my head - as it can be applied to the Social or Political Sciences in modeling which is anything but an exact science. So, I’ve been working on a less ambitious, but nevertheless infinitely more applicable exercise which I call the ‘Vote Trajectory Theory’ where you can devise a mathematical model on the ‘trip’ of a single vote and the multiple intersections for ‘vote deflection’ from a single individual resulting in an eventual weighted outcome and effect. Of course the constant variables would be affected and controlled by the structure and the infinite number of rules devised which would in the ‘real’ mathematical world lead to a predictable outcome. The long and the short would be something like this: Whoever constructs the STRUCTURE for ANYTHING and ultimately Whoever makes the RULES for that particular ANYTHING can determine the OUTCOME of that specific action. The problem I’m having is assigning weighted values for for the variables that are or can be introduced during the ‘journey’ of a single vote along its intended trajectory despite the voters original intentions by merely interjection of RULES within a STRUCTURE made by someone other than the voter themselves. It’s a ‘fun’ exercise without any end in sight...standby... this is going to take a minute...
I’ve done stastical projections professionally for 40 years, often for court appearance as a professional witness.
The key is to watch your assumptions and make them as real as possible. The second is to identify and define your population and your sampling procedures to assure a representative sample.
By manipulating those two items you can manipulate results. That’s why I would write the cross examination questions to shoot holes in opposing testimony.
Fast talkers get destroyed in the courtroom. Down to earth simple examples that the jury can understand or apply in their own life win the cases.