Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America’s economy. What does this mean for the nation’s political-economic divide?

Brookings ^ | 11/10/2020 | Mark Muro, Eli Byerly Duke, Yang You, and Robert Maxim

[semimojo]

Even with a new president and political party soon in charge of the White House, the nation’s economic standoff continues. Notwithstanding President-elect Joe Biden’s solid popular vote victory, last week’s election failed to deliver the kind of transformative reorientation of the nation’s political-economic map that Democrats (and some Republicans) had hoped for. The data confirms that the election sharpened the striking geographic divide between red and blue America, instead of dispelling it...

This time, Biden’s winning base in 477 counties encompasses fully 70% of America’s economic activity, while Trump’s losing base of 2,497 counties represents just 29% of the economy. (Votes are still outstanding in 110 mostly low-output counties, and this piece will be updated as new data is reported.)

In short, 2020’s map continues to reflect a striking split between the large, dense, metropolitan counties that voted Democratic and the mostly exurban, small-town, or rural counties that voted Republican. Blue and red America reflect two very different economies: one oriented to diverse, often college-educated workers in professional and digital services occupations, and the other whiter, less-educated, and more dependent on “traditional” industries.

With that said, it would be wrong to describe this as a completely static map. While the metropolitan/ nonmetropolitan dichotomy remained starkly persistent, 2020 election returns produced nontrivial movement, as Biden added modestly to the Democrats’ metropolitan base and significantly to its vote base. Most notably, Biden flipped seven of the nation’s 100 highest-output counties, strengthening the link between these core economic hubs and the Democratic Party. More specifically, Biden flipped half of the 10 most economically significant counties Trump won in 2016, including Phoenix’s Maricopa County; Dallas-Fort Worth’s Tarrant County; Jacksonville, Fla.’s Duval County; Morris County in New Jersey; and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla.’s Pinellas County...

Why does this matter? This economic rift that persists in dividing the nation is a problem because it underscores the near-certainty of both continued clashes between the political parties and continued alienation and misunderstandings.

To start with, the 2020’s sharpened economic divide forecasts gridlock in Congress and between the White House and Senate on the most important issues of economic policy. The problem—as we have witnessed over the past decade and are likely to continue seeing—is not only that Democrats and Republicans disagree on issues of culture, identity, and power, but that they represent radically different swaths of the economy. Democrats represent voters who overwhelmingly reside in the nation’s diverse economic centers, and thus tend to prioritize housing affordability, an improved social safety net, transportation infrastructure, and racial justice. Jobs in blue America also disproportionately rely on national R&D investment, technology leadership, and services exports.

By contrast, Republicans represent an economic base situated in the nation’s struggling small towns and rural areas. Prosperity there remains out of reach for many, and the party sees no reason to consider the priorities and needs of the nation’s metropolitan centers. That is not a scenario for economic consensus or achievement.

At the same time, the results from last week’s election likely underscore fundamental problems of economic alienation and estrangement. Specifically, Trump’s anti-establishment appeal suggests that a sizable portion of the country continues to feel little connection to the nation’s core economic enterprises, and chose to channel that animosity into a candidate who promised not to build up all parts of the country, but rather to vilify groups who didn’t resemble his base.

[kvanbrunt2]

A numerical percentage may not reflect real stuff. Like food, gas, power generation. The office might be in Philly, Newark, Dallas, etc but the stuff gets done elsewhere.

[semimojo]

Why would you believe that?

Believe what? The numbers or that they mean Congress will have a hard time?

[KDF48]

What percent of those ballots represent a person who contributes positively to the economy?.

[9YearLurker]

Nothing, really. Urban areas tend to have more populated counties, and urban areas tend to have both more business and more idiotic leftists.

Workers for a lot of those businesses tend to vote GOP out in the ‘burbs or exurbs.

[kaktuskid]

1. Crooked Dem county recorder-who was just voted out
2. Dominion voting equipment

[CharleysPride]

It means the areas that voted for Trump will never have another candidate come and ask for their votes and they are looking at permanent political and economic isolation.

Democrats don’t need these votes to get over 50% so they won’t care...

The next round of Publican hopefuls will try to run so far away from Trump that they won’t care..

It’s like the President said again and again at his rallies: if I don’t win, you will never see me here again.

After this it’s probably back to the same five or six swing states and that’s it.

You blew it, folks.
Totally, blew it.

[cp124]

Not 70% of the workers.

[Chgogal]

I don’t know. I wouldn’t call Texas and Florida low growth, low put out states/counties.

California, Illinois and New York are losing citizens,

[Ozark Tom]

Agriculture, manufacture, and mining are the root source of all wealth. Everything else is a derivative based upon these three critical activities. Political influence controls the where and the who which benefit from the wealth created.

[MinorityRepublican]

My older brother works in IT and he’s very left wing.

[x]

First, it's not a red state/blue state division but an urban rural one. You buy your I-phone in Dallas and in this model it counts the same as one bought in New York City. Nowadays, the bank that handles your loan is likely to be headquartered in Charlotte, still counted as a large metropolitan area. In so far as more people live in cities and their suburbs, there are more people buying things, making things, and selling things in cities and their suburbs and there is more economic activity there. This does have red state/blue state implications: divide the country and Atlanta and Houston and Charlotte may not want to go the way of other parts of their states.

Secondly, those high tax states are also among the richest in the country. They can't just be living off the money that they get back from the federal government. It's true that there's been a move of manufacturing away from those states, but there is still a lot of economic activity going on there. An automobile plant built in rural Tennessee or Alabama is definitely something to take note of, but it may be one of the few large employers in the area. That's less likely to be true in a more densely populated area.

Third, there are endless debates going on here about the Civil War. The slave states, some people say, grew the cotton that provided raw material for the growing industries and accounted for most of the nation's exports. The manufactured products and financial services that the North provided didn't count as real wealth. Hurrah! Cotton is King! It didn't work out that way. The value added by manufacturing and even by financial services is very real.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

>It’s more than that. I don’t see how anyone can argue that there isn’t more economic activity in higher-density locations.

In a 50-50 country, their aren’t enough high density locations before you hit the divide in upper medium density areas.