Deaths for causes other than COVID-19 are all either normal or slightly high so far this year.
The math puts a ceiling on the total number of possible deaths for COVID-19 in the US at about 1.3 million. R0 is 2.5, Herd Immunity Threshold is 1-1/R0 or 60%, US population is 330 million, 60% of that is 198 million, Infection Fatality Rate is 0.65%, 0.65% of 198 million is ~1.3 million. Assuming we get no vaccine (which isn’t true, we’re getting one) and no change in treatment (which also isn’t true, we’re getting better), no more than 1.3 million would die.
You say 1.3 million would die. And how many would die of Corona virus as a single cause? To compare this runny nose with the Spanish flu is absurd.
Nobody actually knows what the R0 really is. There are estimates but the political power of a pandemic has prevented us from knowing anything. Nobody knows what the case fatality rate is because nobody really knows how many cases there are or have been. There is the number of positive tests some of which are PCR which have a high probability of false positive and the antibody tests when positive are people no longer at risk of infection. The case fatality rate is corrupt because of the subsidizing of cases. If a covid case pays better than a flu case there will be more COVID and less flu. Diagnosis is political also. 1.3 million is an outrageous number since actual deaths since the disease was first detected fewer than 10 percent of the deaths were actually covid deaths.