The current media tallies show republicans with only 6 seats gained, but I’ve heard it’s really likely to be 10 or more.
With such a slim house advantage, maybe some Democrats could be enticed to switch with some sweetened offer.
The media is lying as usual.
Here is the real count from RRH elections.
GOP Gains (10): FL-26, FL-27, IA-1, MI-3, NM-2, MN-7, OK-5, SC-1, CA-48, NY-11.* Notably, only one of those 10 gains came with a white male candidate, and he (MI-3’s Peter Meijer) was running for an R-turned-I-turned-L seat. * NY-11 has not yet been called, but analysis of the outstanding absentee vote strongly suggests no path to victory for Democrat Max Rose.
Dem Gains (3): NC-2, NC-6, GA-7. Dem offense remains limited to two redistricted races and Rob Woodall’s open seat.
Uncalled GOP Targets:
CA-21: Only a few votes reported yesterday. Ex-Rep. David Valadao (R) leads by 4,558 votes with perhaps 30,000 votes left to be counted. Almost all of those will be in Kern County, which is the district’s Democratic base. Valadao needs to be getting about 43% of the remaining Kern ballots–which is doable, given the likelihood that Kern’s outstanding vote leans Republican, but is not a given. This race is likely to be quite close one way or another.
CA-39: Young Kim (R) won yesterday’s three-county drop of about 10K ballots yesterday by 455 votes, pushing her margin up to 3,550 over Rep. Gil Cisneros (D). It’s unclear how many ballots remain across the district’s three counties; turnout here has already shattered 2016 figures. There could be as many as 20,000 ballots remaining based on numbers from the counties.
CA-48: The race has been called for Michelle Steel (R), making this the first time a Republican has defeated a Dem House incumbent in California since 1994, when three Republicans turned the trick.
IL-14: No news. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D) leads by over 1,000 votes, with an undetermined number of mail-in ballots (which have been Underwood-friendly so far) remaining. A large number of ballots in Lake County, which is expected to lean toward Underwood, remain to be counted.
IA-2: Two big developments here. First, Lucas County realized it didn’t report a precinct on Election Night, and that precinct pushed Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) into a very narrow lead, after a similar error in Jasper County gave the lead to Rita Hart (D) over the weekend. Second, the counties began their final canvassing today. So far, only a few votes have moved in each direction in any given county. Miller-Meeks’s lead sits at 36 votes at the moment. In a potential good sign for her, Johnson County, which is the most Democratic county in the state, appears to have finished its canvas. Yesh Ginsburg has been closely tracking the recanvas on Twitter.
NJ-7: We’ve got a new race on the list! This race was called for Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) on Election Night, but as in several other states (notably Ohio and California), New Jersey’s late absentee vote has leaned strongly Republican, and the state is just beginning to count its relatively small Election Day vote. Tom Kean Jr. (R) has cut Malinowski’s margin to below 4 points (14,000 votes) with perhaps over 70,000 votes remaining, disproportionately in Morris County, which Malinowski lost in 2018. The math suggests Malinowski’s lead is large enough to hold, but DDHQ uncalled the race, so we’ll keep a close eye on this one as NJ ramps up counting this week.
New York: No news, as absentee ballots coutning is beginning today. We should expect updates to start trickling in over the course of the week.
NY-3: George Santos (R) surprisingly leads Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) by 4,200 votes. Suozzi thinks there are 80,000 absentees. Everyone is expecting Suozzi to end up winning comfortably, but if this is close it may have redistricting implications in 2022.
NY-22: Ex-Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) leads Rep. Tony Brisindi (D) by about 28,500 votes, with an estimated 50,000 absentee votes to be counted in the coming weeks. Brisindi will need to grab over 75% of those to catch Tenney, and the general tenor of the cycle suggests he won’t, as this was one of the redder districts to fall in the 2018 wave.
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) leads by 8,000 votes in a district that likely won’t end up particularly close after all ballots are counted.
UT-4: Burgess Owens (R) has the lead by 695 votes. Owens and Rep. Ben McAdams (D) have traded the lead several times since Election Day. Most of the outstanding vote here is in Salt Lake County, where McAdams is leading by over 10 points. However, Owens won the batch of Salt Lake absentee ballots counted over the weekend and only narrowly lost Monday’s batch. Owens needs to continue winning or tying Salt Lake batches in order to hold on to his lead. Local political analyst Robert Gehrke, who has been closely tracking the results, thinks there are about 28,000 ballots left and that McAdams will win them by over 3,000.
Recent Calls: NY-19 was called for Antonio Delgado (D) by DDHQ this morning.
Uncalled Dem Targets:
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) retook the lead after Los Angeles County reported over half of its outstanding ballots. She’s now up by about 1,300 on Rep. Mike Garcia (R) in Dems’ only chance to defeat an incumbent this year. There may be 20,000 to 25,000 votes remaining. Garcia will need Ventura County, which we expect an update from tonight, to give him a big edge.
Others: A number of other GOP-held seats are uncalled, but not particularly close. These include (with GOP margins in parenthesis): AK-AL (Young +40K), NY-1 (Zeldin +75K), NY-2 (Garbarino +46K), NY-22 (Katko +55K). CA-34 (Gomez +12,000) also remains uncalled in the D-on-D runoff.
Recent Calls: TX-24 (Van Duyne) and CA-8 (Obernolte) have both been called as GOP open-seat holds by DDHQ and/or the AP in the last 24 hours.
More like 16 to 20. After recounts and law suits GOP could take the House. Frankly I thought they would.
if the gap is narrowed to 5-8 dem advantage, then the conservative democrats will actually control the house...they were ignored and threatened before,,,but now theyll really have the power. Same thing happened to Gingrich in 1998....reps lost 5 seats but still maintained the House...but Gingrich had lost his power...he had to go....