Posted on 11/09/2020 1:24:04 AM PST by LeoWindhorse
As the vote counting for the 2020 Presidential Election continues, various facts suggest rampant frauds in Joe Biden’s votes. So does mathematics in terms of the votes from precincts.
Benford’s law or the first-digit law, is used to check if a set of numbers are naturally occurring or manually fabricated. It has been applied to detect the voting frauds in Iranian 2009 election and various other applications including forensic investigations.
(Excerpt) Read more at gnews.org ...
And those people seem to be drawn to using a HAMMER🔨
Certainly some stats get admitted in court, otherwise all the lefty “disparate impact” discrimation suits would get promptly tossed.
When that happens, I just use Floomby to make screen caps of the whole page and post the story as images.
“I just use Floomby to make screen caps of the whole page and post the story as images.”
If you have PowerPoint in your MS Office apps, you can do a Print Screen, paste it in to PP, and save as a .jpg.
Apparently they did not use a big enough hammer.
LOL
I was a math major in college {a long time ago} but I had trouble with this approach.
It is not that Benford's Law does or doesn't exist, it is real, but it cannot prove anything.
It is another indicator that fraud existed, but with real evidence all over the place, introducing a statistical analysis is just smoke.
The statistical odds of flipping a coin {heads/tails} is 50-50 but you can still flip 5 straight of either/or, so that statistics and probabilities are predictors, not proof.
The amount of time given before the SCOTUS is very limited, and I would not invest a single minute on Benford's Law.
It’s certainly highly provocative. Benfords law applies to processes that grow or are distributed logarithmically, or geometrically (same thing). Inflation is an example. Take the price of a car, over the course of a century. It should take more than six times as long for the price to go from $1,000 to $2,000 dollars as it does to go from $9,000 to $10,000, [log(2,000/1000)/(log(10000/9000) ~= 6.58]. given that inflation is uniform. Prices distribution themselves logarithmically with time. I have heard of this law being applied to elections in Iran before and used as evidence of fabricated results. It is a standard tool used in audits of expenses, when expenses consist of a variety of goods and services, that would be expected to follow Benford’s law in the limit.
Yeah, I’ve seen those and a few others.
OTMAL had a good point, that the leading digit distribution can vary based on size of precinct. In other words, that Benford’s law has limitations. Applications where the results it provides do not justify confidence in a conclusion. In particular, a conclusion that fraud is present.
OTMAL pointed out some facts - Miami curves do not diverge, other cities they do diverge. Same clinical observation you provide.
I was seeking OTMAL conclusion. Given that Benford “breaks down in some cases,” does it break down in THIS case. Is there evidence of fraud, or not? I know my gut feel, I know your position, but OTMAL pointed out a weakness on Benford. I wonder what effect that has on his confidence in the conclusion that fraud is present.
I’m fine with statistical methods in general, all sorts of distributions, assumptions, etc. Generally though dealing with physical qualities that have variation. Benford is not part of my study experience, and I was looking for an explanation of ramifications of what looks to be a “be careful what you conclude” admonition from OTMAL.
It depends on the case and the outcome they want.
Yes. Violatong Benford’s Law is punishable by incarceration..
I saw another layout of graphs from MI that were based on precincts comparisons not leading number theory.
As examples of vote fraud they were irrefutable. Bidens numbers were a broad sawtooth not a curve while all trumps numbers were within 5% of mean.
These anomalies showed up in the city centers that were barring access to poll watchers, and the site that had a witnessed late night ballot dump with unofficial vehicles after hours.
Note that software block shifting of small pecentages would tend to be not detected by this method as the shifts would be percentages of natural numbers, not human entry.
I suspect the vast majority of voting machines are set to subtly bias and create “the blue wave”, and this amateur ballot drop was because the bias was set to low due to overwhelmingly massive Trump turnout.
Commandering a few ballot machines and doing a forensic software study is in order.
Presumably there would be uncertainty standards to account for sample size?You can’t just take a single number and cry “Foul!” if its leading digit isn’t a 1.
It’s not just the courts. The state legislatures can throw these elections out.
Thank you very much!
I figure any expert who might advance this formally gets all the info that feeds the confidence interval, becuase surely he will be met with a skilled opposing expert.
For us armchair types, it’s useful to get an idea (flawed it may be) which placed are more likely to have been fraud centers. I wonder if anybody has a collection of stats going back, so a given city can be viewed election over election over election.
The history of the law is that its operation suggested itself to two different men took note of the fact that a heavily used table of logarithms wears out first in the pages which display the logarithms of numbers starting with 1.It would seem, therefore, that a table of logs should display one more digit of precision in the “leading 1’s” - and perhaps even the “leading two’s” as well - than in the “leading nine’s.” That would presumably make a more handy table as well as one less likely to wear out with heavy use . . .
Actually, a slide rule sorta does that - accurately setting “1.1” on a sly drool (spelling intentional) is dramatically easier than setting “9.1”
You can set “10.1” on a slide rule almost exactly as accurately as you can set “9.9”
Spot on.
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