Posted on 11/07/2020 7:49:30 PM PST by DoughtyOne
Edited on 11/07/2020 7:54:00 PM PST by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
IFR numbers in April/May timeframe were estimated between 0.5% and 1%. By the end of May and into June, studies and CDC’s own numbers coalesced around 0.65% (0.64%-0.66%). By the end of June, I couldn’t find anything that suggested any IFR outside that range. I haven’t seen any updated numbers, but honestly I’ve been a little busy and haven’t kept up with newly published work as well as I had. It does appear we’ve improved our treatment protocols in the hospitals, finding new medications and other therapies to increase the odds of survival for those requiring medical assistance.
The original numbers for “herd immunity” are still valid. R0 of 2.5. Herd Immunity Threshold is 1-1/R0 or 60%. US population is 330 million, so 60% of that is 198 million. 0.65% of 198 million is ~1.3 million dead. That’s the absolute upper bound with the assumption made that survivors remain immune and that nothing changes with regards to vaccine availability, treatments, viral mutation, etc. I don’t think we’ll ever see anything close to that number because the treatments are improving, immunity does seem to hold for the overwhelming vast majority of the population, viral mutation has been extremely low thus far, and vaccines are just around the corner.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.